By Joshua Karsh
Long before the first bombs were dropped on Baghdad in March of 2003,
there was little doubt in the international community that the United States-led
"coalition of the willing" would emerge victorious over Iraqi forces.
Instead of speculating on the outcome of the war, international experts
and commentators debated mostly over who will rule a post-Saddam Iraq, and what
will be the constellation of the new Iraqi government. Now that the U.S. has
indeed emerged victorious, the real battle for control of Iraq will begin.
General Background
Before delving into the future of Iraq, it is important to have a general
understanding of the country's history and current state of affairs.
The Gulf 2000 project at the School of International and Public Affairs
of Columbia University in New York City produced a comprehensive website that
provides a wealth of information on Iraq's past and present as well as links to
numerous other sources <http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/country/iraq/>
The Federation of American Scientists created a website on the "Iraq
crisis". This website presents
a list of military targets and a review of previous military engagements in
Iraq. <http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/ops/iraq.htm>
The Council on Foreign Relations produced their own "Iraq Resource
Center" which gives selected readings on numerous aspects of the Iraqi war.
<http://www.cfr.org/reg_index.php?id=6|35||1>
MERIA Journal has published a variety of articles on Iraq over the last
seven years. The list of the pertinent articles can be accessed at <http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/index/journalindex.html#IRAQ>
MERIA also provides a list of links of other relevant information on Iraq <http://meria.idc.ac.il/links.html#list2e>
CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR A "FREE IRAQ"
While the last few months have seen serious discussion over the
possibilities for the post-Saddam Iraqi government, universities and think tanks
have been commissioning studies on the subject for years.
In 1998, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
published a report by Anthony Cordesman titled "Iraq after Saddam - Nation
Building and Opposition Movements." <http://www.csis.org/mideast/reports/IraqNationOptions111898.PDF>
In 2001, The Washington Quarterly (which is produced by CSIS) published
an article by Daniel Byman titled "Iraq after Saddam".
The full article can be downloaded at <http://www.twq.com/01autumn/byman.pdf>
The Washington Institute released a monograph in 2002 titled
"How to Build a New Iraq After Saddam". Edited by Patrick
Clawson, the monograph contains five essays that explore the challenges that the
authors assumed would be faced once Saddam was forced from power. <http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubs/intro/howtointro.htm>
In early 2003, the James A Baker Institute for Public Policy commissioned the study "Guiding Principles for U.S. Post Conflict Policy in Iraq." The report can be downloaded at <http://www.bakerinstitute.org>
The Middle East Economic Survey was one of the first bodies to release a
comprehensive and thorough report detailing the future American administration
of Iraq. Their comprehensive report was first released on March 24, 2003.
<http://www.mees.com/news/a46n12a05.htm>
The United States Department of State announced in February 2003 that
contingency plans for post-War Iraq were already underway.
More information on their "Future for Iraq Project" can be
found at <http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/future.htm>
The United States Department of Defense website about the war on
terrorism published the following articles on the Post Saddam government. <http://www.defendamerica.mil/iraq/defenseviews042803.html>,
<http://www.defendamerica.mil/iraq/mission042903.html>
The Heritage Foundation presents a number of articles on the future of
the post-Saddam Iraq at: <http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/iraqroom.cfm>
Post-War Regional Issues
While most experts have focused on what a post-Saddam Iraq will look
like, others have turned to the affect of the new Iraqi government on its
neighbors. MERIA Journal published an article by James A. Russell in the
March 2003 edition that discusses the possible future security architecture in
the Persian Gulf. <http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2003/issue1/jv7n1a3.html>
F. Gregory Gause, III has also just published an analytical piece
considering the future of U.S. policy in the Gulf. The study, entitled "The
Approaching Turning Point: The Future of U.S. Relations with the Gulf
States," was published by the Brookings Institute. <http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/fp/saban/gause20030430.pdf>
U.S. LEGISLATION CONCERNING A "FREE IRAQ"
Review of Congressional Action on Iraq
The Congressional Research Service published a review of all Congressional Action on Iraq 1990 - 2002. <http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/17330.pdf>
The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Press Center (FPC) Iraq website
offers other Congressional Research Service reports on Iraq and the Middle East.
It also provides transcripts of the FPC's briefings on the conflict as
well as numerous links to other relevant materials on Iraq. <http://fpc.state.gov/c7688.htm>
Iraq Liberation Act
One of the most prominent of the Congressional actions was the "Iraq
Liberation Act". The House of Representatives passed it overwhelmingly on
October 5, 1998. The Senate subsequently unanimously passed the act on October
7, 1998. A copy of the
Congressional record of the October 7th session can be found at: <http://www.fas.org/news/iraq/1998/10/981009-in.htm>
President Clinton signed the act into law on October 31, 1998.
A statement from the President was released by the office of the Press
Secretary and can be found at <http://www.library.cornell.edu/colldev/mideast/libera.htm>
A full text version of the act along with statements from Congressional
members who sponsored the act is published at <http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/1998/980929-in2.htm>
INTERIM COALITION MILITARY ADMINISTRATION
While the international community has agreed in principle that the future
Iraqi Government should be controlled by Iraqis and not by a foreign power,
there is a general consensus that an interim military administration should
govern Iraq until a more permanent solution can be found.
Many experts have tried to find a parallel between the military
administration that is being instituted in Iraq and the American military
command that was instituted in Japan following World War II. An RFE/RL report
about lessons from the Japanese occupation can be found at: <http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2003/03/05032003174827.asp>
Former supreme allied commander in Europe during the war in Kosovo,
Retired Army General Wesley Clark writes about the differences between the Japan
situation and the Iraq one in an op-ed in the Washington Post. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8221-2003Mar21?language=printer>
Unlike the military occupation of Japan, an active military commander
will not head the current American occupation of Iraq. While many assumed that
role was going to be given to United States Army General Tommy Franks, who heads
the United States Military's Central Command and engineered the invasion of
Iraq, Franks returned to the United States in early May 2003. <http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,85919,00.html>
A biography of General Franks can be found at: <http://www.centcom.mil/aboutus/cdrbio.htm>,
<http://stacks.msnbc.com/news/887633.asp>
Lieutenant General (Retired) Jay Garner was originally named as the
civilian coordinator during the interim period. Immediately after the fall of
Baghdad, Garner was ushered in and was greeted with much fanfare. <http://www.fortune.com/fortune/articles/0,15114,433417,00.html>,
<http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6263449%255E25777,00.html>,
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,940683,00.html>
Garner heads the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Affairs (ORHA), which was formed by the Pentagon in January 2003. ORHA will be entrusted with running daily life in Iraq and will coordinate humanitarian assistance as well. <http://usinfo.state.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/display.pl?p=/products/washfile/latest&f=03050202.clt&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml>
For a discussion of projected humanitarian needs in Iraq, see the summary of a USIP conference on the issue at: <http://www.usip.org/events/2003/0312_ESiraq_humanitarian.html>
The Council on Foreign Relations website has a brief Q+A about aid to
Iraq dated April 11, 2003 at: <http://www.cfr.org/background/background_iraq_relief.php>
Another name that may feature prominently in the interim period is Zalmay
Khalilzad, formerly United States envoy to the post-Taliban Afghanistan.
Khalilzad was named as special U.S. envoy to Iraqi opposition groups in
December 2002. <http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/text/1203wthsrpt.htm>
A short biography of Khalilzad can be found at: <http://www.afghan-info.com/Politics/Zalmai_Khalilzad_ShortBiography.htm>
On May 6, 2003, former American Ambassador, J. Paul Bremer was named to
presidential envoy to Iraq, though his responsibilities in the U.S.-led
reconstruction of Iraq were not discussed. Bremer, a former counter-terrorism
director in the Reagan administration as well as a member of the Homeland
Security Advisory Council, will direct the selection of a transitional
government and take control of other functions now overseen by the military.
<http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-iraq-usa-bremer.html>.
A transcript and video footage of President Bush's announcement can be seen at
<http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/05/20030506-3.html>.
A short biography of Bremer can be found at: <http://www.mmc.com/news/newsOperatingCompanies_bremer_06_02.php>
IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS
There are six major opposition movements in Iraq that the United States
government considers to be viable candidates for involvement in the future Iraqi
government. While it is still
unclear what roles the following groups will play in a future Iraqi government,
it can be assumed that they will be an active part of any future government.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
The KDP is under the leadership of Masoud Barzani.
First formed in 1946 in what was then Soviet-controlled Northern Iran,
the KDP currently operates out of Northern Iraq with support branches in other
Middle East locations as well as in London and Washington D. C. <http://www.kdp.pp.se/index.html>,
<http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/kdp.htm>
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
The PUK is the other major Kurdish group that was fighting the Iraqi
regime out of Northern Iraq. Jalal
Talabani, the organization's current leader, founded the PUK in 1975. <www.puk.org>,
<http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/puk.htm>
While in previous years there has been bitter infighting between the two groups, they have enjoyed good relations over the last few years and are currently presenting a more united Kurdish front. <http://www.puk.org/web/htm/news/knwsline/nws/01dec02.html>, <http://www.msnbc.com/news/850574.asp?0cb=-61n5737>
Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)
SCIRI is a Shi'i resistance group that was formed in 1982 in opposition
to the Iraqi Government's aggression against Iran. SCIRI is headed by Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim and
operates out of southern Iraq's large Shi'a population.
The group's general assembly consists of 70 members representing various
Islamic movements. Its military
force contains many former Iraqi army officers and soldiers. While SCIRI has
stated that it does not receive direct support from the Iranian government, it
does maintain connections with Iranian Security Forces. <http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/sciri/>,
<http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/sciri.htm>
Iraqi National Council (INC)
The INC was formed when the KDP and PUK decided to participate in a June
1992 meeting in Vienna of nearly 200 delegates from dozens of opposition groups.
In October of that year representatives of the Shi'a community joined
them. The united front elected a three man Leadership Council consisting of a
Shi'i cleric, a former Iraqi General, and the KDP leader as well as a 26-member
executive council headed by Ahmad Chalabi.
Although the INC was not always united in subsequent years, it has
recently been trying to reassert its power.
Currently, Chalabi heads the organization. <http://www.inc.org.uk/>,
Iraqi National Accord (INA)
The INA was publicly established in 1990. The INA advocates a democratic Iraq post-Saddam Hussein.
Headed by Iyad Alawi, the movement is bolstered by many soldiers who have
defected from the Iraqi military. <http://www.wifaq.com/index_e.html>,
<http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/ina.htm>
Hashemite Kingdom
The 1958 assassination of the Hashemite ruler Faisal II brought the
Ba'ath Party to power. Although it
seems to be a slim possibility at best, several members of the Hashemite family
have staked their claim to the Iraqi throne.
Leading them is Sharif Ali bin Hussein, whose mother was Faisal II's
aunt. He has the backing of the
Constitutional Monarchy Movement <http://www.iraqcmm.org>.
Other sources have mentioned Jordan's Crown Prince Hassan as a possible
successor to the throne. An article in the September 2002 edition of the National
Review further discusses the possibility of a Hashemite ruler in Iraq. <http://www.nationalreview.com/02sept02/pryce-jones090202.asp>
Analysis
of Opposition Movements
Kenneth Katzman wrote a general overview of the Iraqi Opposition
Movements in 1998. Although it was written five years ago, much of the
information is still relevant. <http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/crs-iraq-op.htm>
The Council on Foreign Relations also gives an overview of the opposition
groups listed above <http://www.cfr.org/background/background_iraq_opposition.php>
MERIA Journal published an article in December 2002 on the Iraqi
opposition groups' movement towards unity. <http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2002/issue4/jv6n4a1.html>
NATIVE IRAQI LEADERS
Ahmad Chalabi has garnered the most attention of any of the possible
Iraqi leaders. Chalabi has amassed a considerable fortune during his
twenty-seven years in exile. As
head of the INC he is the most likely of all the native Iraqi leaders to inherit
a leadership position in a future Iraqi government. As soon as Baghdad fell to the coalition forces, Chalabi was
ushered back into Iraq in an attempt to rouse native support for him in the
newly freed cities. More information on Chalabi can be found at: <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2939585.stm>
<http://www.here-now.org/shows/2003/04/20030409_9.asp>
<http://www.msnbc.com/news/896159.asp?cp1=1>
Interviews with Chalabi can be found at <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saddam/interviews/chalabi.html>
<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/04/06/60minutes/main548012.shtml>
Chalabi is bolstered by a militia force known as the "Free Iraqi
Force". This force, which
consists of many Iraqi exiles, was flown into Iraq in early April 2003. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42859-2003Apr6.html>,
<http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Apr2003/t04042003_t0404fif.html>,
<http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/iraq/articles/fiff030407.htm>
Jalal Talabani's place in the future Iraqi government is uncertain.
As head of the PUK, he may be faced with choosing between assuming a
leadership role in a future united Iraqi government and attempting to establish
a long desired autonomous Kurdish area in northern Iraq. <http://www.puk.org/web/htm/about/talab.html>
Interviews with Talabani can be found at <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saddam/interviews/talabani.html>, <http://www.iraq.net/erica/news-e/archives/00000042.htm>
Masoud Barzani is the leader of the other major Kurdish group in Northern
Iraq, the KDP. Thanks to the agreements reached between Barzani and Talabani,
the Northern Iraqi Kurds have presented a more unified front over the last few
years. While Barzani's group will
also probably find a place in any future Iraqi government, they too will have to
decide if they are more interested in a united Iraq or an autonomous Kurdistan.
<http://www.iraqinews.com/people_barzani.shtml>,
<http://www.boston.com/globe/magazine/2002/1215/coverstory.htm>
UNITED NATIONS INVOLVEMENT IN POST-SADDAM IRAQ
The scope of United Nations involvement in post-Saddam Iraq has become the subject of a heated debate between the United States and the European powers. The United States contingency plans for the "liberated" Iraq do not include a United Nations administration. The nations that initially opposed the coalition force's invasion of Iraq have been the most vociferous in calls for a United Nations controlled administration in Iraq. <http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/meeting_04-11-03.html>
The British government has also voiced its desire to see a UN
administration established in Iraq. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/03/07/wirq107.xml>
Several sources reported that the UN has designed their own
administration plan. Supposedly, Kofi Annan's deputy, Canadian Louise Frechette,
ordered the plan. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-600029,00.html>
A collection of links and sources on United Nation actions concerning Iraq can be found at <http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraq1/resoindx.htm>
OTHER SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Most major newspapers and news organizations have written about
post-Saddam governmental scenarios. Many
have entire sections devoted to the Invasion of Iraq.
New York Times <http://www.nytimes.com/pages/world/worldspecial/index.html>
CNN: <http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/new.iraq/transition/index.html>,
<http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/rebuild_iraq/>
MEMRI <http://www.memri.org/iraq.html>
USA Today <http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/front.htm>
Washington Post <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/iraq/front.htm>
ABC News <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/dailynews/iraqindex.html>
CBS News <http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/iraq/main500257.shtml>
MSNBC News <http://www.msnbc.com/news/attack_front.asp>
BBC News <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2002/conflict_with_iraq/>
In the last few months a large number of articles on the future of Iraq
have been published. The following
is a small sampling:
ABC News - <http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s818297.htm>
British Broadcasting Company - <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1879841.stm>
Christian Science Monitor - <http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0213/p01s03-woiq.html>
CBS News - <http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/02/11/iraq/main540257.shtml>
Deutsche Welle - <http://www.dwworld.de/english/0,3367,7489_A_818018_1_A,00.html>
Guardian Unlimited - <http://www.observer.co.uk/worldview/story/0,11581,891374,00.html>
The Atlantic - <http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/11/kaplan.htm>
The Washington Times - <http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/05062002-041921-3354r.htm>
CNN - <http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/02/24/sprj.irq.rebuilding.plan/>
PBS - <http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/
jan-june03/iraq_2-11.html>
Washington Post - <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A37949-2003Feb20¬Found=true>
Iraq Watch - <http://www.iraqwatch.org/perspectives/winep-pw615-baram-4-9-02.htm>
Brookings Institute - <http://www.brook.edu/views/op-ed/fellows/baram20030430.htm>
Finally, a book on Post-Saddam Iraq was released during the final stages
of the war. "The New Iraq" by Joseph Braude. An article about the book
and its author can be found at <http://www.forward.com/issues/2003/03.03.28/faces.html>
*Joshua Karsh is a research assistant at the GLORIA Center, and is completing his MA in Diplomacy and Foreign Policy at the Hebrew University.