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Issue 11/July 2000
Editor, Prof. Barry Rubin
Assistant Editors, Linda Sharaby and Cameron Brown
Editorial Assistant: Ozgul Erdemli
Issue 11/July 2000
Editor, Prof. Barry Rubin
Assistant Editors, Linda Sharaby and Cameron Brown
Editorial Assistant: Ozgul Erdemli
Please credit if quoting; ask permission to reprint
The death of Syria's President Hafiz al-Asad, after
a 30-year reign, and his replacement by an untested son, now President Bashar
al-Asad, was a major event for the region. To predict Syria's future direction
and Bashar's own rule, in the words of British journalist John Bulloch writing
in Arabies, is almost a matter of "reading tea leaves." <http://www.arabies.com/Politics.asp>.
But writings about this issue at least provide the facts so far,
thought-provoking analysis, and suggestions of the possibilities.
I. THE DEATH OF ASAD
Rumors of Hafiz al-Asad's illness had been around
for decades. Yet when news actually broke of his sudden death in June 2000, it
stunned the world. His death came at the end of a hectic six months, including
ultimately abortive Syria-Israel talks and Israel's withdrawal from southern
Lebanon. For BBC coverage: <http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/in_depth/middle_east/2000/death_of_assad/default.stm>
In Syria, of course, Asad was
intensively praised. Official tributes include:
Teshreen newspaper: <http://www.teshreen.com/syriatimes/s-mo/local-s002.htm>;
al-Thawra: <http://www.thawra.com/english/President%20Leader.html>;
the state news agency, SANA: <http://www.sana-syria.com/English1/ENGLISH-ROOT/reports.htm>;
and ministry of information: <http://www.moi-syria.com/assad.htm>.
Official funeral pictures are at: <http://www.assad.org/pictures.htm>;
For a survey of international obituaries: <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/Assadreact000610.html>.
See also those of Patrick Seale in The Guardian: <http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4029324,00.html>;
ABC News: <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/Asadreact000610.html>;
and the BBC:
II. HAFIZ AL-ASAD'S LEGACY
Among older sites, this simulation profile of Hafiz
al-Asad is still worthwhile: <http://www.la.utexas.edu/chenry/mena/roles/oil/1998/0075.html>.
Asad is praised by the Asad.org site, dedicated to
"The Saladin of the 20th Century" and includes hyperlinks like,
"Asad Thank You" <http://www.assad.org/>.
Syria's Ministry of Information ran an informative biography: <http://www.moi-syria.com/assad.htm>.
Official Syrian books concerning the late president are at: <http://www.niceonline.org/books.htm>. The Observer spoke of "The old warrior who never gave in to Israel": <http://www.observer.co.uk/international/0,6903,330695,00.html>.
The New York Times <http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/editorial/12mon1.html>;
BBC <http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_785000/785605.stm>;
and Le Monde <http://www.lemonde.fr/doss/0,2324,3503-1-QUO,00.html>
all have material on a post-Hafiz Syria.
More critical evaluations came from the July 3
Jerusalem Report, entitled "A Catalogue of Missed Opportunities": <http://www.jrep.com/Mideast/Article-0.html>.
In the same paper, writing on June 10th, Amotz Asa-El discussed his economic
failings, over-attachment to the Soviet Union, and "worship of raw
power". <http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2000/06/10/News/News./986.html>.
Ha'aretz is equally damning. "Death of a Dictator" comes with audio
links to analysts as well as world reactions and background to Syria: <http://www.virtualjerusalem.com/articles/266003.htm>.
Some Western papers took a similar view. Michael Gove wrote in The Times, "Asad's bid for peace was a thin disguise." <http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/2000/06/13/timopnope01002.html>.
A few Syrians also highlighted regime shortcomings. The Syrian Human
Rights Committee (also in Arabic) provides data, discussion groups and annual
reports: <http://www.shrc.org/english/index.htm>.
A pro-democracy Syrian site, al-Hiwar ad-Dimokraty, is also in Arabic: <http://www.club-internet.fr/perso/mormik>.
Before his death, Asad dismissed anyone who might
oppose Bashar's accession. Prime Minister Mahmoud al-Zou'bi was deposed after 13
years in office and a new cabinet appointed <http://www.syriatoday.com/newgov.htm>.
Gary Gambill of Middle East Intelligence Bulletin analyzed the implications and
Bashar's role <http://www.meib.org/articles/0003_s3.htm>,
as did Saeed Okasha of the Cairo Times: <http://www.cairotimes.com/content/archiv04/assad.html>.
Zou'bi committed suicide, according to the official version. For Zou'bi's
obituary in The Guardian, written by Lawrence Joffe: <http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4023796,00.html>.
In this regard, the cabinet change of March 2000 attracted some attention.
Writing a long, contemplative essay in the Jerusalem Post, Janine Zachariae
describes the reshuffle as "auguring a new period in Syrian history":
<http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2000/03/09/News/News.3746.html>.
Some of the best background appeared in a cover
story in the January 17, 2000, Jerusalem Report, called the "The Asad
Dynasty": <http://www.jrep.com/Info/Asad/asadmain.html>.
III. BASHAR AND SYRIA'S DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Bashar's main internet presence before his ascension was at the Syrian Computer Society which he chaired <http://www.scs-syria.com/> and it has a handy profile of him: <http://www.scs-syria.com/pprofile.html>. Roula Khalaf of the Financial Times described Bashar's political grooming <http://www.ft.com/nbearchive/> as did Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor. <http://www.csmonitor.com/aurabie/2000/06/13/p1s2.htm>. The Lebanon Star throws light on the new ruler's personality <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/10_06_00/spes10.htm>. ABC hailed him as the latest of "a new generation of Mideast leaders": <http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/mideast000613_findlay.html>.
But the Independent's Robert Fisk was less convinced of Bashar's
modernity. "World's toughest nation elevates heir to sudden God-like
status", he wrote on 12 June 2000: <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/World/Middle_East/2000-06/assad120600.shtml>.
Equally sceptical was E.J. Dionne Jr of the Washington Post's June 12 piece,
"Whatever his wishes are, Bashar has to deal with an intimidating power
struggle, not a free electorate," he warns: <http://washingtonpost.com/wp-ayn/articles/A461/9-2000jun12.html>.
The Times of London wrote: "Spotlight falls on
bookish bachelor": <http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/2000/06/12/timfgnmid01002.html>.
Guardian writer Derek Brown called Syrian politics "a family business"
in a June 12 piece: <http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,331121,00.html>.
Susan Sachs of the New York Times recounts Bashar's rise <http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/061200syria-assad.html>.
On the June Ba'th Party Conference there is a yahoo
report <http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20000617/wl/syria_baath_dc_1.html>
and an article from al-Thawra: <http://www.thawra.com/english/regional.html>.
For analyses of Syria's elite, a good source is
from Singapore <http://sg.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/afp/article.html?s=singapore/headlines/000621/world/afp/Pen_portraits_of_Syria_s_new_leadership.html>.
as well as the June 18, 2000 Washington Post. <http://www.washingtonpost.com./wp-dyn/world/mideast/A14056-2000Jun17.html>.
One expert view of the possible impact of the new generation appeared in Adel
Darwish's 1999 essay, "Syria: the young are ushered in": <http://www.mideastnews.com/young.htm>.
A number of articles also dealt with the role of
the Alawite community, as with Susan Sachs' report for the NY Times <http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/062200syria-assad.html>
and a thought-provoking 1996 article by Garland Green <http://www.sunrisepress.com/ggreen/TXasad.htm>.
Other such material comes from the World Tribune <http://www.worldtribune.com/Archive-2000/ss-syria-03-22.html>.
For a short but informative essay from the
Britannica encyclopaedia, see: <http://www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/1/0,5716,5431+1,00.html>.
For material on Hafiz al-Asad's troublesome
brother, Rifaat" <http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20000612/wl/syria_rifaat_dc_2.html>;
Le Monde: <http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,2320,dos-3503-70462-QUO-2--,00.html>;
Middle East Intelligence Bulletin: <http://www.meib.org/articles/0006_sd.htm>;
and MEDEA: <http://www.medea.be/en/index443.htm>.
Economic Issues:
"How Well (or How Poorly) is the Syrian
Economy Doing?' asked Prof Eliyahu Kanovsky in MERIA Journal of July 1997, in
his article "The Middle East Economies: The Impact of Domestic and
International Politics": <http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/meria/journal/1997/issue2/jv1n2a1.htm>
'The Middle East' Magazine's Peter Kiernan wrote about Syria's economic
dilemmas in March 1999: <http://www.woya.com/cgi-bin/linksmag/jump.cgi?ID=1972>.
In September 1999, the magazine investigated potential benefits to Syria of
peace with Israel:
<http://www.woya.com/cgi-bin/linksmag/jump.cgi?ID=3050>.
Bashar admitted to the poor state of the Syrian
economy, according to Middle East Newsline: <http://www.menewsline.com/headline7.html>.
Decisionmaking:
In June 1998, Ziad K Abdelnour published
"Inside Syria's Power Structure" which remains an invaluable guide:
<http://freelebanon.org/articles/c8.htm>.
Dr Eyal Zisser wrote about the same theme in "Appearance And Reality:
Syria's Decision-making Structure," MERIA Journal, May 1998: <http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/meria/journal/1998/issue2/jv2n2a5.html>.
IV. FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES
Syria-Palestinian: An op-ed on the feud between
Yasser Arafat and Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass (now one of Bashar's
mentor's) appeared at The Estimate in August 1999 <http://www.theestimate.com/html/current.html>.
Miftah reported in late 1999 "Syrian-Israeli negotiations and their effect
on the Palestinian-Israeli track": <http://www.miftah.org/KeyIssues/english/Dec17.html>.
Syria's Views on Israel-Turkey relations: See this
article by Jon Gorvett in The Middle East of 1998: <http://www.woya.com/cgi-bin/linksmag/jump.cgi?ID=294>.
Alain Gresh wrote a detailed essay on "Israeli-Turkish-Syrian Relations and
their impact on the Middle East," in Middle East Journal. Spring 1998: <http://www.mideasti.org/articles/gresh.html>.
Syria-Israel peace process
See MERIA's Research Guide on this issue:
<http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/research-g/syria-israel-talks.html>.
A long essay called "Peace with Syria First" appeared last year
in Middle East Insight magazine (online). The author, Professor Alon Ben-Meir of
the New School University, New York, has also published a recent book on Israel
and Syria: <http://mideastinsight.org/7_99/syriafirst7.99.html>.
MERIA Journal, June 2000, included
"Negotiating with Syria - a firsthand account," by Yosef Ben-Aharon
<http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/2000/issue2/jv4n2a1.html>
and Barry Rubin, "Understanding Syrian Policy: An Analysis of Foreign
Minister Faruq al-Sharaa's Explanation: <http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/2000/issue2/jv4n2a2.html>.
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright remarks on
Asad and negotiations at his funeral: <http://secretary.state.gov/www/statements/2000/000613.html>.
December 16, 1999, Policy.com's April Pedersen
reported on the mood at the opening of new peace talks: <http://www.policy.com/news/dbrief/dbriefarc444.asp>.
Early hopes for these talks were reflected in the
official Ba'ath Party newspaper's website in early January 2000: <http://www.albaath.com/a2.html>.
Adel Darwish spoke of the hoped-for 'Countdown to
Peace' in the February 2000 edition of The Middle East: <http://www.africasia.com/icpubs/me/feb00/meca0201.htm>.
After all went amiss at Shepherdstown, Syria still
swore that it had shown "goodwill to Israel", reported Reuters: <http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000112/wl/mideast_syria_5.html>.
In February, the Syrian foreign policy analyst
Murhaf Jouejati spoke on a "Syrian perspective on the Syrian-Israeli Peace
Track": <http://www.cafearabica.com/perspect/perspect14/persyria14.html>.
Another Syrian view comes from veteran
Syrian analyst, Sadik Jalal Al-Azm, Professor of Philosophy at Damascus
University, "The View from Damascus," in the New York Review of Books,
and represents a most detailed and subtle psychological and historical portraits
of the state of Syrian politics. You can find it divided into a number of
lengthy sub-files: <http://nybooks.com/nyrev/wwwarchdisplay.cgi?200006150/OP>.
In May 2000, Egypt's President Mubarak and the late
President Asad held discussions on the peace process: <http://133.164.254.54/online/html2/o090520.htm>.
"The Strategic Equation of Peace: Negotiations
between Israel, Syria, and Lebanon" a lecture by Ambassador Edward P.
Djerejian, Director of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of
Rice University, Texas: <http://www.tau.ac.il/peace/pib.html>.
Miftah analyzed what turned out to be Asad's last great act - his summit
meeting with President Clinton in Geneva: <http://www.miftah.org/KeyIssues/english/Mar242k.html>.
(Other peace-related items appear in the
next section).
Virtual Jerusalem has a dedicated link to
Syria/Israel talks that includes links, news archive, issues, your vote,
background reports, plus a timeline and photo gallery: <http://www.virtualjerusalem.com/israelsyria/index.htm>.
They also analyze the following issues surrounding the peace track: the Golan,
Timing (of talks and possible deal), Psychology, Borders, Strategy and security,
Finance, Water and MIAs: <http://www.virtualjerusalem.com/israelsyria/issues.htm>.
Syria and Lebanon:
Arabicnews.com relays an official Syrian version on
Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon: <http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/000526/2000052611.html>.
Bahman Baktiari, associate professor at the
University of Maine, and Augustus Richard Norton, professor at Boston
University, wrote a very worthwhile analysis entitled "Lebanon
End-Game" though before the pull-out and the death of Asad:
<http://www.mideasinsight.org/3_00/baktiarinorton.html>.
Richard Beeston, diplomatic editor of The Times,
described one possible byproduct from Israel's pullout from southern Lebanon
"Pressure on Syria to withdraw": <http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/2000/06/12/timfgnmid01004.html>.
Indeed, two months earlier Gebran Tueni, publisher
of the Lebanese An-Nahar newspaper, began his campaign to achieve just such a
result. On March 23rd he wrote an open letter to Bashar al-Asad <http://www.annahar.com.lb/htd/GGT.HTML>.
Tueni was profiled in Middle East Intelligence Bulletin: <http://www.meib.org/articles/0006_ld.htm>.
L'Orient Le Jour hinted at splits between Beirut and Damascus over South
Lebanon: <http://www.lorient-lejour.com.lb/htdocs/5-27-1.html>.
Information on Syria's military relations with
Russia in a World Tribune article: <http://www.worldtribune.com/x100.html>.
V. USEFUL ITEMS
Discussion Groups and Mailing Lists
Of course, Syria remains a largely closed society.
Yet many Syrians seem to be participating in the heated opinions aired at the
Lebanese forum-site of the Beirut Daily Star): <http://forum.dailystar.com.lb/>.
Internet Society of Syria: <http://leb.net/iss/>.
Syrian Studies Group's Syria Net is a discussion
group moderated by Gloria Saliba: <mailto:saliba@histr.sscnet.ucla.edu>.
Bibliographies
Syria Online has a short bibliography of French
books on Syria: <http://www.mysite.com/syria/desd231.htm>.
The Library of Congress has a much more extensive bibliography of
English-language books on Syria: <http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/syria/sy_bibl.html>.
A French computer engineer has an
attractive, informative site devoted to Syria: <http://www.mysite.com/syria>
with a 600-book bibliography: <http://www.mysite.com/syria/bibl.htm>.
History:
Historic Syria is revealed at three sites: <http://www.geocities.com/SouthBeach/Shores/5270/history1.html>,
<http://php.iupui.edu/~adahman/>,
<http://www.syriatoday.com/history.htm>.
A useful history of Syria: <http://www.made-in-syria.com/syriahistory.htm>,
but weirdly enough, it ends in 1961!
A useful listing of Syrian leaders from 1943 to the
present: <http://personales.jet.es/ziaorarr/syria.htm>.
Nice maps: <http://www.geocities.com/SouthBeach/Shores/5270/syria.html>.
Virgin.net has its own attractive short history of
Syria, plus links of interest to tourists: <http://www.virgin.net/travel/guides/middle_east/syria/historyandgovernment.htm>.
Tore Kjeilen's Encyclopaedia of the Orient online
provides a whiplash history of Syria via a timeline, starting in 2,500 BC and
ending in 1991. It includes imbedded hyperlinks to places. There are also
category links to short items on Syria's political situation, economy, people,
religion and so on. Finally, the site's alphabetical lexicon includes a few
figures like Hafiz al-Asad and places, like Damascus: <http://i-cias.com/e.o/syria_5.htm>.
The Syrian Ministry of Tourism has set up a most
attractive site focusing on ancient history: <http://www.syriatourism.org/>.
Syria - Photographic Journey includes excerpts from
travel writers old and new: <http://www.manhal.com/>
Country Profiles and General Information:
U.S. State Department's excellent Country
Background Notes: <http://www.state.gov/www/background_notes/syria_0499_bgn.html>.
MEDEA (European Institute for Research on
Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation) has a good links page to Middle Eastern
matters: <http://www.medea.be/index.htm>.
A short profile: <http://www.medea.be/en/index174.htm>.
Few sites compare in thoroughness with the Library of Congress's country
studies item: <http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/sytoc.html>.
A brief country profile, courtesy of ABC: <http://www.abcnews.go.com/reference/countries/SY.html>.
In French is Le Monde Diplomatique's file on Syria.
Here you will find not only links to statements by Barak and Shara, but
articles, maps, documents, an exhaustive chronology, a guide to the peace
process and descriptions of Syria today: <http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cahier/proche-orient/region-liban>.
Link Collections:
An older stalwart with good links to government,
politics and history comes from the University of Texas: <http://menic.utexas.edu/menic/countries/syria.html>.
Other excellent links to Syria are found at Arab
Gateway: <http://www.al-bab.com/arab/countries/syria.htm>
and Arab.net <http://www.arab.net.com/>.
Arab World Online has a good selection of links to
Syria: <http://www.awo.net/country/ctrypgs/chsyr.asp>.
Hitherto, most Syrian sites emanated from far
afield: Sweden, for instance, in the case of the extensive Syrian Friends
Online, which boasts myriad links in English, Arabic and Swedish: <http://www.algonet.se/~sfol/>.
An impressive list of links exists at
Syria-net.com, especially via a drop-down menu (though not all are specifically
focused on Syria): <http://www.syria-net.com/>.
Official Sources:
There has been a rapid expansion of Syrian official
sources on the internet including several in English: The Syria Times: <http://www.teshreen.com/syriatimes/>;
al-Thawra <http://www.thawra.com/english/english.htm>;
and SANA News Agency <http://www.sana.org>.
Al-Baath, the ruling Syrian party's newspaper, appears in Arabic: <http://www.albaath.com/>.
Arab Writers Union is only available in Arabic:
<http://www.awu-dam.com/>.
The National Information Center <http://www.niceonline.org/>
includes research about ideological and historical issues <http://www.niceonline.org/studies.html>
and current affairs, which is covered at: <http://www.niceonline.org/series.html>.
The 'official version' on politics, government and
law is attractively (if pithily) presented at Syria's Ministry of Information
website: <http://www.moi-syria.com/>.
Syria's Ministry of Economic Affairs has a new site
with a very comprehensive list of exports, laws and so on. However, it says its
southern neighbor is Palestine, not Israel - an indication of how far
politicians need to travel to attain peace? <http://www.syrecon.org/main_frame.html>.
The Latest News:
For the latest news, helpful sources include: Yahoo
<http://fullcoverage.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/World/Syria/>;
Middle East Wire (which draws from Arab newspapers but loads slowly) <http://www.middleeastwire.com/syria/>;
Arabicnews:
VI. SYRIA IN THE INTERNET AGE
Bashar is an aficionado of the internet and
computers generally.To some political observers this implies the dawning of a
new age in Syria, an opening up to the world. In fact, there is even an option
to post an internet vote for Bashar, though the proposed outcome is sugested by
the title: "Vote for Syria, Vote for the Future, Vote for Bashar":
<http://www.voteforsyria.org/>.
Howard Schneider's Letter from Syria in the
Washington Post of June 19th shows how the internet is breaking down barriers.
<http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24237-2000Jun19.html>.
Le Monde covers a similar story (in French): <http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,2320,seq-2277-74286-QUO,00.html>.
Cyberspatial freedom appears to be seeping through
via websites like: <http://www.syrianinternet.com/>.
Alan George of The Middle East reported on 'Syria
at the Crossroads' in February: <http://www.africasia.com/icpubs/me/feb00/meca0206.htm>.
Increasingly, Syrian publications are going online.
One such is Cafe Syria, full of facts and figures about Syria, its government
and its people: <http://www.cafe-syria.com/>.
Another is Syria Today: <http://www.syriatoday.com/>.
It includes a handy summary of national features and statistics: <http://www.syriatoday.com/syriatoday.htm>.
Also very informative is "Syrian Online": <http://www.mysite.com/syria/syria.htm>.
Damascus Online--everything Syrian! includes a poem
of the day, proverb of the day, photos, music, and lots on history, plus links
to other new Syrian websites. Most significant of all, if Syria is to become
more democratic, it boasts an already pretty lively sub-site, The Syrian Forum:
<http://damascus.bizland.com/>.
Syria's first internet directory is Syria Nobles,
with links to sites dealing with culture, history, tourism and news: <http://www.syrianobles.com/>.
Amongst those responsible for the technical side of
"netting up" will be Syrian Telecommunication Establishment, a growing
site, but still slow-loading: <http://www.syriatel.net/mc/>.
Lawrence Joffe is MERIA's London correspondent.
Awards: Lycos, Top 5% Site; Arab E-Journal, Publication of the month;
Selection, Scout Report for Social Sciences; Award, Newsbytes news wire;
LinksGo Key Resource Award//MERIA is indexed in Cambridge University's
Index Islamicus. Staff: Barry Rubin, editor; Assistant
Editors: Linda Sharaby (editorial); Cameron Brown (administrative). London
representative: Lawrence Joffe.
MERIA offers you discounts on books and publications. We welcome special arrangements for our readers. To propose articles, items for publication, give others free subscriptions, or other correspondence, write:besa@mail.biu.ac.il