News 2 1998

MERIA's new link list, especially designed for researchers and writers on the contemporary Middle East, is now available on our home page. We hope you'll use it. To report any broken links or to make suggestions, use the MERIAMAIL button on the homepage.

C. PLANNED MERIA PROJECTS

Volunteers to assist in the following projects or suggestions for other activities are welcome:

--We will soon put on our homepage the queries and responses we have received to help others in their research. Readers are invited to submit additional questions or responses to be maintained permanently on-line.

--We are preparing a large database on U.S. Middle East policy, the equivalent of over 350 manuscript pages, from 1980 to the present which will be searchable.

--We are seriously considering publishing a MERIA Review of Books 2-3 times a year with essays surveying new materials available on all aspects of modern Middle East studies. Authors, editors, or potential reviewers are invited to submit titles, books, and suggestions. Write: besa@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il

--Finally, we will be installing this year a search engine that will let readers search all MERIA materials for information on specific topics.

We are always open to suggestions, ideas, and proposals. Write us with yours.

ARTICLE:

DUAL CONTAINMENT--REVIVE IT OR REPLACE IT?

A debate between Dr. Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Ambassador Charles Freeman, former assistant secretary of defense for regional security affairs. (Reprinted with permission from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy).

Patrick Clawson: Washington must face the problem that both the large powers in the Persian Gulf-Iran and Iraq-have regimes unwilling to live in peace with its neighbors or the United States. Several approaches to these vexatious regimes tried by the West have been unsuccessful. Both the reliance on a regional power to sustain peace and the promotion of a balance of power among warring countries ended in disaster. Europe and Japan tried engaging Iran with tens of billions in loans, but got little dividend. The failure of past strategies led the Clinton administration to conclude that the United States must guarantee the security of the Persian Gulf. That is the essence of dual containment: to deter or repel aggression by these two states while awaiting the change in regime that is sure to come because the current regimes are unable to address the needs of their peoples.

Internal dissension in both Iran and Iraq will eventually result in the change of both regimes. Though severe repression and reliance on a tight circle of family and associates ensure the immediate security of Saddam's regime, they also ensure the eventual demise of the present system. In Iran, the election of President Khatemi in May displayed a youth disaffected by social restrictions, poor economic prospects and corruption. Furthermore, the Islamic republic is threatened by the alienation of its most senior pious clergy (as distinct from the political clergy), some of whom called for supreme religious leader Khameini to relinquish part of his authority to Ayatollah Montazeri.

While the United States awaits the collapse of the Iranian and Iraqi regimes, it remains confident in its ability to deter and repel aggression by either government. While there are differences among the international community about how to relate to these rogue regimes, there is a consensus about the need to prevent the most aggressive acts possible by either Iraq or Iran, namely, if Iraqi invaded Kuwait or employed weapons of mass destruction or if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.

Some have argued against dual containment stating that the U.S. military presence required to deter aggressions on the part of Iraq or Iran destabilizes the Gulf monarchies. This concern is misplaced. Indeed, thanks to modern technology, the United States does not need large military bases such as it has in Europe and East Asia to preserve the security of the Gulf. Under the umbrella offered by American protection, some GCC governments have begun to make overtures to Iran and Iraq. This is because dual containment is a victim of its own success. That is not surprising behavior for small states receiving protection from a large neighbor by a distant superpower. The United States' will and ability to check external aggression has led to complacency about the threat posed by Iraq and Iran.

Dual containment can be revived and strengthened by following four suggestions:

* Proclaim the change of the two regimes as the desired goal of U.S. policy.

* Engage the people of Iraq and Iran, irrespective of governments.

* Explore the confidence-building measures of moving to a more defensive military posture.

* Seek UN imprimatur less frequently for U.S. actions in the Gulf; share responsibility for Gulf decision-making with other

countries in proportion to their tangible contributions to Gulf security, with a focus on the key roles of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Great Britain.

It has been argued that instead of dual containment, the United States should focus solely on containing Iraq while easing on Iran. This would be an error. If there was such a dramatic shift in U.S. policy, the GCC states would understandably become concerned about U.S. reliability, even about Iraq itself. Plus, if the Gulf monarchies witness Iran gaining strength and the United States vacillating, they may decide to accommodate Saddam to preserve their national interests. Also, the same forces arguing for engaging Iran-namely, the French and Russian governments and some U.S. oil interests-would make the same argument regarding Iraq. In short, it is not feasible to contain Iraq while engaging Iran.

Ambassador Charles Freeman: Balance of power is the best guarantee of security in the Gulf. When the Iran/Iraq war left Iran weakened, Iraq felt emboldened to commit transgressions against its neighbors which in turn led to the Gulf War. At the end of that war, the U.S. objective-in addition to the UN's core objective of expelling Iraqi from Kuwait-was to restore the balance of power by reducing the size of Iraqi forces. Saddam Hussein's military defeat did not lead to his political humiliation and subsequent removal, and his conflict with the United States continues. Because of the dual containment policy, power in the region remains unbalanced. As a result, the United States must maintain a permanent force in the region as a deterrent to both Iran and Iraq. In Iran, dual containment leaves the United States waiting for the erosion of revolutionary fervor and the unlikely collapse of the regime. In Iraq, it leaves the United States waiting for change in Baghdad with no plan to achieve it.

The United States continues to ignore political strategyin its approach to these two states. Through purely military means, it is attempting to eliminate Iraqi weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and would like to see the same in Iran. This leaves GCC states, which Washington is trying to protect, dissatisfied with the poor results of U.S. efforts and uncomfortable with the open-ended deployment of U.S. forces in the region. Saddam has consolidated his position; Iran has not been isolated.

The purpose of maintaining Iraqi sanctions with virtually no likelihood they would ever be lifted is unclear. The only visible result of the sanctions is the suffering of the Iraqi people, which is a focus of opposition to the policy of dual containment by members of the Gulf War coalition. Sanctions can only be effective if the conditions under which they will cease are established. The marginal utility of the UNSCOM inspections is declining; it is evident that support for the continuation of the inspection regime has deteriorated. The argument made by Washington that sanctions must be continued in order to support the UN is diminished by the U.S. failure to pay its UN dues. And the strong U.S. stance on what Iraq must do is undercut by its failure to apply pressure regarding the Arab-Israeli peace process.

The United States should move away from its policy of dual containment to a differentiated policy towards Iraq and Iran. With respect to Iraq, the policy should aim at the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Here, it is vital to distinguish between the Iraqi people and Saddam. The Iraqis must be told with certainty that if Saddam were no longer in power, Iraq would be relieved of its international isolation: sanctions would be lifted and Iraq be reintegrated as a part of the international community. With regard to Iran, the policy should be engagement in a wary dialogue with the Iranian people and authorities in order to strengthen the position of those in Tehran who are arguing for a more sensible policy toward the West.

[This report was prepared by Stephanie Sines from a program conducted on December 10, 1998.]

1. ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MEETINGS, CONFERENCES, LECTURES

See our homepage for the MERIA 1998 global events calendar. We welcome additional events and information.

The Rothberg School for Overseas Students of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem offers summer courses, July 1-August 13, 1998 in introductory and intermediate Literary Arabic and introductory Spoken Arabic. On registration: Yoel Nesson, msnesson@pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il and for academic matters: Yohanan Friedmann, msyfried@pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il or http://www2.huji.ac.il/www_sfos/top.html

Call for papers: In January 1999, the BESA Center is planning a conference on The Changing Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture and the Middle East. To propose a paper or obtain information: Gerald Steinberg, (gerald@vms.huji.ac.il).

3. NEW PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST

"North Korea's Threat to the Middle East and the Middle East's Threat to Asia," a new study by the BESA Center for Strategic Studies in cooperation with the Sejong Foundation is available in hard copy for free: browne@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il.

"The PLO and Israel: From Armed Conflict to Political Solution," 1964-1994, edited by Avraham Sela and Moshe Ma'oz, is published by St. Martins Press.

Stuart Cohen's article on Israel's army in MERIA Journal 4 is a revised and greatly shortened version of an article published in Israel Studies and available free from the BESA Center for Strategic Studies. For a free copy: browne@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il. We thank Israel Studies for permission to reprint this article.

Efraim Karsh, "Fabricating Israeli history: The "New Historians" (Frank Cass, 1997) is a devastating, much-discussed critique of the contemporary historical debate in Israel, including a wealth of new primary sources. Frank Cass; 210 pages; hardcover (07146 4725), $35; paperback (07146 4274 6), $13.50.

Yoram Meital, Egypt's Struggle for Peace: Continuity and Change, 1967-1977, University Press of Flirda (15 NW 15th Street Gainesville, Fl 32611-2079, 256pp. $49.95 critical decade leading to the peace.

Raymond Tanter, Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation, St. Martin's Press.

4. WEBSITES/GROUPS ONLINE

THE INTERNATIONAL DIRECTORY of MIDDLE EAST SCHOLARS, Columbia University invites you to be listed in its database compiled and maintained by Frank H. Unlandherm, Middle East Studies Librarian: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/libraries/indiv/area/MiddleEast/. It is also a useful source for finding people by area of research interest or other key words.

A student-oriented database on Middle East history and politics is now at http://www.us-israel.org and includes a special focus on U.S.-Israel relations, bibliographies, and responses to questions by the American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise.

Bir Zeit University's "The Complete Guide to Palestine's Websites," the most comprehensive such listing, has been redesigned and expanded at: http://www.birzeit.edu/links/

The Sudan Foundation has redesigned its page at: http://www.sufo.demon.co.uk

Several radical and opposition groups have new sites:

Manar Resistance Television, Lebanon, presents a daily news summary from Hezbollah in Arabic: http://www.almanar.com.lb/

"Unofficial Hamas Website" is from a group of Hamas supporters in the United States at http://www.hamas.org

Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), a Shia opposition group, http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/sciri/

Iraqi National Congress, the largest anti-Saddam Hussein opposition group, is at http://www.inc.org.uk/ and the site includes detailed news accounts of activities within Iraq.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, http://www.puk.org/ is from an Iraqi Kurdish opposition group.

5. FREE SUBSCRIPTIONS TO E-MAIL PUBLICATIONS

The correct address for subscribing to Iraq News, a valuable publication including much documentation on current developments regarding Iraq, is: 105007.1334@compuserve.com

6. FUNDING/SCHOLARSHIPS/FELLOWSHIPS

The US-Israel Educational Foundation offers a number of programs including two-year scholarships to Israeli-Arab students who wish to study in the United States during the 1999-2000 academic year. For applications and information: em@usis-israel-org.il with a March 31 deadline, For a full listing of programs: http://www.usis-israel.org.il/publish/usiefcov.htm

Center for International Security and Arms Control 1998-99 Fellowship Program. SUBMISSION DEADLINE: 26 Jan 1998 CISAC sponsors fellowships to Ph.D. candidates and scholars with Ph.D.s who are working in the areas of peace and international security. Winners spend the academic year at Stanford University. The stipends range from $17,000 to $28,500 depending on the candidate's academic degree.

7. MERIA BOOKS: FREE

Order free MERIA books from our innovative publishing house, collecting articles from MERIA and other materials into electronic books which are updated and expanded over time. To order free copies or propose chapters or projects: besa@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il. For a full list of books, see our homepage.

New items:

Dr. Bulent Aras and George K. Foster, "Turkey and the Azerbaijani Oil Controversies" has been added to the Central Asia and the Middle East book.

NEW BOOK:

ESSAYS ON THE MIDDLE EAST'S NEW ERA
By Barry Rubin

Israel, The PA and the Arab States

The PLO Charter Revision: A Crossroads in Palestinian Politics

Is the Arab-Israeli Conflict Over?

External Influences on Israel's Election

North Korea's Threat to the Middle East and the Middle East's Threat to Asia

Defining the New Middle East

Costs and Benefits for State Sponsors of Terrorism

U.S. Strategy in a Post-Cold War Middle East

8. DISCOUNTS FOR MERIA READERS

We ask magazines and publishers for discounts to MERIA readers. If you can offer such inducements, contact MERIA. Take advantage of benefits from being a MERIA reader:

A. The WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY offers MERIA readers 20 percent discount for the order of five copies or more of its publications. Mention MERIA! info@washingtoninstitute.org

B. MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY: offers MERIA readers a 20% discount on 1-year subscriptions: $30 for individuals ($7.50 off regular rate); $40 for institutions ($10 off regular rate). For addresses outside U.S., airmail delivery costs $20 more; surface mail, $5 more. Write MEQ, AM&M, PO Box 1897, Lawrence, KS 66044-8897, USA; e-mail: dforio@allenpress.com, or call 1-800-627-0629.

C. Lawrence Joffe, KEESINGS GUIDE TO THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS, 10% discount on the 45 pound sterling price. Write Customer Services Manager, Liz Godden: lizg@pearson-pro.com

D. Israeli Perspectives, edited by Neill Lochery, 10% discount to MERIA readers on $60 annual subscription rate. Includes news plus an academic study, chronology, press summaries. For details and sample copy: neilllochery@msn.com

E. Neil Lochery, The Israeli Labour Party in the Shadow of the Likud, Ithaca Press, 10 percent discount on the price of 35 pounds sterling. To order quote code 10046. Add $3.50 for postage. Write: Garnet Publishers, 8 Southern Ct, South Street, Reading, Berkshire rg1 4qs England.

MERIA offers you discounts on books and publications. We welcome special arrangements for our readers. To propose articles, items for publication, give others free subscriptions, or other correspondence, write:besa@popeye.cc.biu.ac.il

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