[Meria Journal Image]

Issue 7, July 1997

Editor, Prof. Barry Rubin
Managing Editor, Avi Rembaum

 

For printed copies of a MERIA Journal article or NEWS. Send $5 check each: BESA Center, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

IMPORTANT NOTE:
LAUNCHING MERIA SEMINARS! To help serious researchers around the world discuss important topics on a high level, MERIA is launching seminars, moderated lists limited to a maximum of 25 qualified participants on a very specific topic. We'll coordinate the lists. Participants are invited to discuss ideas, ask questions, publicize developments, share materials, etc. The first seminar list will be: TURKISH-ISRAEL RELATIONS. See the first article below for an introduction.

To join or propose topics for other seminars, write: besa@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il

CONTENTS

ARTICLE

Barry Rubin, NOTES ON TURKEY-ISRAEL RELATIONS (discussion paper for the MERIA Seminar on Turkey-Israel Relations)

INFORMATION
  1. ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MEETINGS, CONFERENCES, AND LECTURES (previous announcements are on our web site Events Calendar)
  2. RESEARCH QUERIES--PLEASE HELP
  3. NEW PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST
  4. WEBSITES/GROUPS ONLINE
  5. DISCOUNTS FOR MERIA READERS
  6. FELLOWSHIPS AND FINANCIAL AID: USIP Fellowships

ARTICLE ON TURKEY-ISRAEL RELATIONS By Professor Barry Rubin

Growing cooperation between Turkey and Israel has been both an important political development in the Middle East and a source of considerable fascination for many researchers. This article discusses this relationship's basis in a brief, informal manner. It also serves as a general statement to start off the MERIA Seminar on this topic. Please note that this is in no way intended as a complete or detailed statement on the issue.

The two countries have a number of orientations and interests in common as well as certain differences in perception and priorities:

  1. Common Orientations, Goals, and Interests

    • Turkey and Israel are both non-Arab and also democratic states, Western-oriented and with important allied relationships to the United States. They are also moderate and status quo oriented in their foreign policies. Both want to be close to Europe but are often held at armsþ-length by the Europeans. Both face violent, often terroristic, enemies who attack within their borders. They are both medium-sized powers with significant defense needs. Both also see themselves primarily as nation-states, representing the aspirations of a single people. (All statements on Turkey, of course, must take into account the position of the Welfare Party so recently in the government leadership.)

    • Opposition to Radicalism and Regional Instability:

      Both states want a stable region and worry about radical forces, in power or seeking to take power, which might attack or destabilize them. While their positions and priorities are not identical, Turkey and Israel are close enough in their concerns to have a largely common set of interests, one of the most important of which is an attempt to deter radical forces.

      • Iran: Until recently, Israel was more concerned about Iran as a threat--in strategic, political, and terrorist terms--and favored sanctions. Turkey was less worried about Iran (though it didnþt want Iranian influence to spread), sought good commercial relations with that state, and felt that good contacts would moderate its positions. More recently, however (in reaction to Welfare partyþs rise and to revelations about Iranian support for revolutionary groups within Turkey), Many elements in Ankaraþs elite seem to have become far more worried about Tehran.

      • Iraq: Both Turkey and Israel supported the anti-Iraq coalition in the war over Kuwait. Because of his ambitions, ideology, and search for vengeance, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein poses a threat to both countries. Turkey, however, has two interests which make it more open to ending sanctions: a real need for trade with Iraq and some level of cooperation in terms of the Kurdish factor in northern Iraq.

      • Syria: On Syria--in contrast to the two previous countries, Turkey is somewhat more hawkish toward Syria than is Israel. Syrian support for Kurdish terrorism, territorial claims against Turkey, and other subversive activities make Syria the number one enemy of Turkey in the Middle East. Syria also has a water dispute with Turkey and sees Turkey's massive GAP project as a threat to itself. At the same time, Syria is the neighbor most likely to attack Israel. Sometimes Turkey worries about an Israel-Syria peace agreement damaging its own interests. Such an agreement, however, does not seem likely for some years to come.

      • Islamic radicalism: The spread of Islamic radical revolution appears to both countries as a threat (again, with the Welfare party as an exception) since both countriesþ governments are non-Islamic and are threatened by Islamic opposition movements.

      • Terrorism: Threatened by violent forces (although usually not by the same groups) both countries have a stake in improving international (and bilateral) cooperation against the perpetrators and sponsors of terrorism. Radical states have supported and trained terrorist forces against both states. Libya and Sudan are also seen as antithetical by Turkey and Israel.

    • U.S. Policy

      Turkey and Israel both have close relationships with the United States. While the United States does not agree with all the policies of either country, it is an ally and their key source of foreign aid, military supplies, and diplomatic backing. Israel assists Turkey with its own influence in Washington. Both countries want the United States to remain active and strong in the region, supporting their concerns.

    • Mutually Beneficial Cooperation

      • Economic: Trade is profitable for both states and is growing rapidly. Israeli tourism is a financial plus for Turkey.

      • Defense: Cooperation in training, technology (like plane upgrades), intelligence, and other matters benefits both countries.

  2. Differences: Real, Perceived, Priorities

    There are differences between the two states but none of these is enormous and there are no directly bilateral conflicts.

    • Turkish-Arab Links

      The main factor that might inhibit cooperation on Turkeyþs side is a belief that improved relations with Israel would damage Turkish contacts and interests in the Arab world. While this had an effect historically, at present heightened Turkey-Israel relations seem to have little real cost in terms of Turkey-Arab relations. The unhappiness of radical states and movements, which already act against Turkish interests, may seem a positive outcome in Ankara.

    • The Arab-Israel Peace Process

      Turkey wants to see the peace process succeed and include a solution satisfactory to the Palestinians. While Turkeyþs position is closer to the Israel Labor Party than to thegovernment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this has not damaged bilateral relations but it could slow down further development of them.

    • Weapons of mass destruction

      Turkey is concerned about the spread of weapons of mass destruction to radical states, a common factor with Israeli interests. At times, Turkish leaders have argued that Israelþs reported nuclear arsenal might encourage radical states to develop similar weapons. As these states have gone ahead in acquiring all the weapons they could get, however, the Turkish concern has turned toward considering defensive responses. This new orientation could add another important area for cooperation with Israel.

    • Kurdish issue

      The violent revolt of some Kurds is a vital issue for Turkey. Israel does not want to become directly involved in this problem. Turks often worry-- inaccurately--that Israel is supporting a Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

  3. A Note on Domestic opinion

    Israeli public opinion is universally supportive of a close relationship with Turkey. Within Turkey, the majority supports this strategy but there is considerable dissent especially among Islamic-oriented sectors and perhaps in regard to the situation in the peace process. Some Turkish officials and politicians have viewed a closer relationship with Israel as a way to undermine and embarrass internal rivals in the Welfare Party. People-to-people links are frequent and varied in many sectors.

Conclusion: There is a strong basis for bilateral cooperation and good relations, with relatively secondary points of differences and no direct conflicts. Potential inhibiting factors include lack of progress in the peace process, Turkish public opinion, and some differences in strategy toward Iran or Iraq.

ARTICLE

Second Quarterly Report on Economic and Social Conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (April 1, 1997) by the Office of the UN Special Coordinator in the Occupied Territories. "Looking Ahead" section:

With lower unemployment rates in the second half of 1996, and no comprehensive closures in the fourth quarter, there was reason to be optimistic about economic prospects in 1997. The number of permits issued by the Israeli authorities to Palestinian workers exceeded 50,000 during the last quarter of 1996. During the first quarter of 1997, there were about 60,000 permits issued, approximately 55,000 WBGS workers employed in Israel and commodity flows had been restored to early 1996 levels.

Under the improved conditions, the Palestinian Ministry of Finance and the IMF projected continued macroeconomic progress in 1997, with real growth rates for GDP and GNP of about 5.5 and 8 per cent respectively. These projections assumed a monthly average of 35,000 WBGS workers in Israel, an expansion of merchandise trade between the WBGS and Israel and an active Public Investment Program on the part of the Palestinian Authority, supported by donors and multilateral institutions. The Ministry of Finance warned, however, that such a growth scenario is highly sensitive to border closures--such as that imposed by the Israeli authorities on 23 March 1997.

These growth rates would mean, at a minimum, the restoration of aggregate incomes to their end-1995 levels. Per capita incomes, under current estimates, would be below their end-1995 levels. This suggests that a solid year of economic growth in 1997 would restore overall income to its end-1995 level but not result in improvements in the average incomes of Palestinians in the WBGS. On the other hand, the WBGS economy has exhibited considerable resilience and an ability to regenerate growth after repeated external shocks. While the sources of the renewed growth have been construction, public consumption and private service activities--rather than in industry and agriculture--and partly financed by donor assistance, the private sector currently possesses a significant amount of unused productive capacity. Under more stable economic and political conditions, and in the absence of closures, much of that capacity could be beneficially utilized.

TO OBTAIN A FULL COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT, SEE DISCOUNTS FOR MERIA READERS


  1. ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MEETINGS, CONFERENCES, AND LECTURES

    July 21-24: PALESTINIAN EXPATRIATES CONFERENCE (BUSINESSMEN and PROFESSIONALS). The Palestinian Authority Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation will hold a 4-day conference, the first half in Gaza; the second half in Bethlehem. Participants will include government officials, representatives of international organizations and donor countries, Palestinian businessmen and professionals (local and expatriates). The agenda will focus on investment opportunities and laws. For more information: http://www.globedirect.com/~royal/house/index.html

    July 23: Roundtable Forum: What Can the State of Israel Do to Facilitate Palestinian Economic Growth? Speakers: Adnan Samara, Deputy Minister of Industry, PA; Dr. Arie Arnon, Ben Gurion University; Gideon Eshet, Yediot Ahronot. 4:00-6:00 pm, Notre Dame Center, Jerusalem. Sponsored by IPCRI.

    July 23: Dr. Ada Aharoni of Haifa University, Lecture on the Cultural Heritage of the Jews from Egypt, Sponsored by "The Historical Society of Jews from Egypt." At the Magen David of West Deal, 395 Deal Road, Ocean, New Jersey 07755. Registration: HSJE PO BOX 230445, Brooklyn, NY 11223. FAX# 718-998-2497.

    July 30-August 4, Conference on Conflict Resolution at the Peace Institute, Antioch College, Yellow Springs, Ohio, includes sessions on the Middle East. For more information: psmoker@college.antioch.edu

    June 2-4, 1998: Congress for Babylonian Jewry Research, The Second International Congress for Babylonian (Iraqi) Jewry Research. Call for papers. Meeting to be held in Or-Yehuda, Israel. Topics will include the family, leadership, links to Israel, and other topics. For more information: http://www.babylonjewry.org.il



  2. RESEARCH QUERIES--PLEASE HELP

    Correction: The author of the book on the waqf in Israel is Yitzhak Reiter of the Jerusalem Institute. His new book on the Waqf has just been published by Frank Cass (thanks to Chaia Beckerman).

    Professor Paul Sullivan, American University in Cairo, asks:

    a. What are good sources for understanding the economics of the Kibbutzim from 1967 to 1996, and the effect of the political power of the Kibbutz members and supporters on the peace process?

    b. What would be the best references on Israel's economic relations with the newly independent republics of Central Asia, and on economic relations between Turkey, Iran and Central Asia?

    MERIA has published articles on Central Asia by Bulent Aras (Journal 1) and by Gareth W (Journal 2) which deal with some of these issues.



  3. NEW PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST

    BESA Center for Strategic Studies, Amikam Nachmani, "Water Jitters in the Middle East." Growing population, climate changes, rises in living standards, and overuse overload the regional water supply. Rivers flowing through several countries exacerbates the complexities. The study analyzes the water shortage, its link to the peace process, and ways to alleviate the problem.

    Middle East Quarterly for June 1997 includes articles by Eliyahu Kanovsky, "Syria's Troubled Economic Future," Fred Eldin, "Coping in Islamic Iran," Laura Zittrain Eisenberg, "Israel's South Lebanon Imbroglio," and others. (See discount information, below).

    The U.S. State Department report, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 1996, can be obtained at: http://www.usis-israel.org.il/publish/terrorism/index.htm Or order a copy from USIS (See MERIA News 6 for details) Item no. DRJune-I1d.

    John Nomikos, "Looking Back to See Forwar: Turkey-Israel Defense Relations", Special Report, RIES, Research Paper #39, July 1997. To order, write: jnomikositel.gr

    Ada Aharoni and Judith Zilbershtein, editors, Waves of Peace Anthology: In Memory of Yitzhak Rabin, 180 pages. In Hebrew, English and Arabic. Focuses on recent developments in the cultural and educational peace process by Israeli and Palestinian writers. ISBN: 965-222-774-9 To order: HATIKHON, G. Farah, Shfar-Am, Israel. Fax: 972-4-9869926

    The second Quarterly Report on Economic and Social Conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (April 1, 1997) by the Office of the UN Special Coordinator in the Occupied Territories is on: http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/mepp/unsco/unfront.html For a hard copy, write: Salem_Ajluni_at_DPKO-UNSCO@un.org



  4. WEBSITES/GROUPS ONLINE

    The Association for Israel Studies has a new website: http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~waxmanci/aisfolder/ais.htm

    The Israeli Prime Minister http://www.pmo.gov.il has a new site including speech and media transcripts and policy papers.

    Israel's Government Press Office has a new site http://www.gpo.gov.il/ including policy papers, translated articles from the Hebrew press, economic reporting, and how to contact government departments and officials. You can also subscribe for free email delivery of its publications.

    Richard Haass, director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, analyzes the Middle East Peace Process: http://www.brook.edu/ES/POLICY/Polbrf19.htm

    Iraq Information and Discussion List: join: subscribe@coollist.com Write Lists: "iraq-l" as message. For more data, write Dr. Anwar Al-Ghassani: alghassa@sol.racsa.co.cr

    Leading Lebanese Shia cleric (and spiritual guide of Hezbollah) Sayyid Hussain Fadlallah Bayyinat has a homepage at: http://www.bayynat.org.lb/ Email: bayynat@bayynat.org.lb

    The media monitoring group, CAMERA, has a homepage at: http://world.std.com/~camera.

    Neil Lazarus Educational Services has a site with huge amounts of introductory data on Israel, the Arab- Israeli conflict, and Middle East issues: http://www.israelinfo.comevisit.com

    ARABIC-INFO, a new unmoderated list for Arabic Studies will include calls for papers, conference announcements, new publications, notes on research in progress, dissertation abstracts, book reviews, news of Arabic/Near Eastern Studies Programs, employment opportunities, profiles of individuals associated with Arabic studies, etc. To subscribe: send the message: subscribe arabic-info to: majordomo@indiana.edu (Thanks to Lahoucine Ouzgane)

    Relating cultural issues and heritage to Middle East peace, IPRA: International Peace Research Association Electronic Journal -Pave Peace Through Literature and Culture, ed. by Ada Aharoni and Paul Smoker: http://tx.technion.ac.il/~ada/home.html

    The Palestine Economic Forum (PalEcon) is located at http://www.palecon.org. It includes economic publications out of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; report of the Middle East Economic Strategy Group, and the bi-monthly Palestine Economic Pulse to which you can subscribe.

    The city of Haifa now has a site: http://www.haifa.gov.il.



  5. FELLOWSHIPS AND FINANCIAL AID

    Through the Jennings Randolph Program for International Peace, the United States Institute of Peace selects SENIOR FELLOWS to conduct research projects for a period of up to one year during a residential fellowship in Washington, DC.

    Priority will be given to proposals that promise to make a timely contribution to the understanding and resolution of ongoing and emerging international conflicts. Senior Fellows come from a variety of professional backgrounds, including media, military, business, academia, government, journalism, law, and conflict mediation, religion, humanitarian affairs and competition is open to citizens of any country.

    The SENIOR FELLOWSHIP AWARD is calculated from the applicant's salary during the year prior to the commencement of the fellowship.

    The Institute also awards PEACE SCHOLAR FELLOWSHIPS to outstanding doctoral students at U.S. universities for a one year dissertation research and writing of doctoral dissertation which addresses the sources and nature of international conflict, and the full range of ways to prevent or end conflict and to sustain peace.

    Dissertation projects from all disciplines are welcome. Priority will be given to projects that contribute knowledge relevant to the formulation of policy on international peace and conflict issues. Doctoral students applying for support MUST BE ENROLLED IN UNIVERSITIES IN THE UNITED STATES, but citizens of all countries are eligible.

    The PEACE SCHOLAR award is $14,000 per year, paid directly to the individual.

    For further information, or to receive an application form, contact: United States Institute of Peace Jennings Randolph Program for International Peace 1550 M Street NW, Suite 700W Washington, DC 20005-1708 USA E-mail: jrprogram@usip.org