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CONTENTS
ARTICLES
A. Middle East Briefing, "Russia's New Middle East Policy"
B. Darius Bazargan, "Exclusive Interview on Iraqi Weapons Monitoring"
INFORMATION
- ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MEETINGS, CONFERENCES, AND LECTURES (previous announcements are on our web site Events Calendar)
- RESEARCH QUERIES--PLEASE HELP
- NEW PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST
- SPECIAL INTEREST: INNOVATIVE USIS SERVICE
- WEBSITES/GROUPS ONLINE
- DISCOUNTS FOR MERIA READERS
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Middle East Briefing, "Russia's New Middle East Policy"
By Middle East Briefing*
The dismantling of the USSR has left Russia economically strapped and with diminished clout in the Middle East. Recently, Moscow has tried to reassert itself in the region after long playing second fiddle to the United States.
Unlike the past, however, economic benefit, not geopolitical strategy, is the driving force behind Russia's Middle East policy. The Middle East presents a ripe market for one of the former Soviet state's most developed industries; military goods and arms. To increase its foreign currency holdings, Russia is ready to improve relations with the region's most isolated countries, such as Iraq and to a lesser extent Iran. Naturally, in return, Russia hopes to receive back some of the billions of dollars in debt owed to it by certain countries.
Since becoming Russian Foreign Minister in January 1996, Yevgeny Primakov has attempted to reassert Russia's influence in the region. Primakov, 66, a Middle East specialist, had served as chairman of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR, formerly the KGB) since 1991. He is considered more of a nationalist than Andrei Kozyrev, his predecessors, noted for his more moderate diplomatic line with the West.
Since assuming his new post, Primakov has attempted to reassert Russia's influence in the region, and fulfilled expectations that he would turn the country's traditional diplomatic focus on the West toward one in favor of closer ties with Asia and the Middle East. Primakov has repeatedly stressed that his policy is not anti-Western, but rather one in which Russia seeks to "diversify (its) approach", and that the Arab world will have a "considerable place" in his foreign policy. This changing focus of Russian foreign policy was shown in the reception accorded losing hardline Iranian presidential candidate Nateq Nouri during the last campaign when he was received a head-of-state's welcome in Moscow just weeks before the election.
Not surprisingly, the Russians are and will likely continue to be welcomed in the region. One reason for this is the interest of some regional players in increasing the number of competitors in arms sales, for example, which should drive costs down, and provide access to a wider range of technology. A number of countries within the region object to the prominence of the US in the region, regarding it as unequivocally pro-Israeli. Russia offer a chance to balance, or at least diminish the US's role, and could force the Americans to recalculate their own Middle East policy ever so slightly. At most, some countries hope to recapture the days when they could play off the United States and USSR in order to gain more arms or aid for themselves. It should be remembered that Russian technicians designed and built Syria's rail system, as well as similar projects in Iraq, Libya, Yemen and in Egypt during the 1960s.
Russian officials gave a warm reception to Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz during his visit to Moscow last March, and Primakov's reference to his guest in front of the world media as his "old comrade". The closeness of Iraq- Russia ties led to the recent signing of a $3.5 billion oil deal between the two. The deal will be implemented in spite of the current 1990 UN-imposed sanctions, although Russia insists it will not violate the sanctions. The 23-year deal covers the development of 7 to 8 billion barrels of reserves in southern Iraq's west Qurnah oilfield.
Russia's largest oil company LUK oil has a 52.5 percent stake in Qurana, while Iraq has 25 percent, and two other Russian oil firms, Zarubezhneft and Mashinoimport, control the balance. Additionally, Russia's state oil holding firm, Rosneft, along with Zarubezhneft signed a separate deal to set up an oil drilling enterprise in Iraq.
Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, but lost significant reserves with the break up of the Soviet Union, and this is cause for its keen interest in Iraqi crude. Russia has an interest in bringing life back into Iraq's economy as well. Iraq's recent announcement that the oil deals would generate $70 billion in revenue for Baghdad--some of which will go toward repaying Iraq's $7 billion debt to Moscow--is good news for the Russian economy. And while Russia has supported the UN's stringent sanctions, it is clearly eager to see sanctions lifted. The oil deals and talks with Iraq can be laying the groundwork for larger more extensive agreements to be reached after sanctions end.
Russian experts predict that arms exports to the Middle East will account for as much as 40 per cent of Russia's total exports to the region in the coming years. Russia currently holds between 12 and 15 percent of the Middle East arms market, excluding Israel.
To facilitate sales, Russia's participation at the recent international arms exhibition (IDEX 97) in Abu Dhabi was prominent. Moscow sent representatives from nearly 80 defense enterprises to the show, along with 500 exhibits featuring live weapons systems, models, brochures, booklets and videos. In fact, the Russian Ka-50 multi-mission assault helicopter garnered considerable attention at the exhibition, drawing the delegations from Yemen, Libya, and Algeria in particular. Also popular were Russian anti-aircraft systems and other high-tech weapons.Russia's efforts to restore its influence in the Arab world include enhancing existing military and political links with Iran and Syria as well.
Gen. Mikhail Timkin, a senior official with Russia's state-owned arms exporter Rosvoorouzhenie, was in Damascus recently to discuss possible weapons . According to Israeli sources, Moscow has agreed upgrade Syria's armed forces, specifically air defense systems, the army and the air force. Negotiations between the two countries regarding missile deals were unfruitful. Russia's key interest in the discussions is a chance to get back some of the $20 billion debt Syria owes the former Soviet Union.
US reports suggest Moscow has supplied SS-4 long-range missile technology to Iran. Moscow also has an $800 million contract with Iran to provide two reactors and technology for a nuclear plant outside the southern port of Bushehr.
But a clear indication that profit is Russia's key interest in the region, the former Soviet state recently concluded a deal worth several hundred million dollars with Israel Aircraft Industries to equip Russia's Ilyushin aircraft for electronic surveillance operations. The deal was finalized during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first state visit to Moscow.
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This article is slightly condensed from pieces appearing in Middle East Briefing, see below for more details on this new publication. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Darius Bazargan, "Exclusive Interview on Iraqi Weapons Monitoring"
[Darius Bazargan is a London-based correspondent for Inter-Press Service.]
Terrence Taylor, UNSCOM inspector for biological weapons, recently returned from Iraq and gave the following exclusive interview on UN inspections and continuing Iraqi evasion of international controls.
Q: Some members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) are starting to waver over keeping sanctions on Iraq. Has that affected your work?
Taylor: Yes, that's already happening. Within his latest report Rolf Ekeus (the last head of Unscom) complains about the lack of Iraqi cooperation at with the long-term monitoring program. The Iraqis are doing this because they know that there are squabbles amongst members of the Security Council. And they are exploiting that as far as they can. It's our intrusive inspections that are a major element in maintaining the consensus of the SC. We are able to produce evidence every time that the Iraqis haven't told us everything. This is how it goes on, we find it out and then they declare it, and after my mission they will now say "Oh yes, we did do this work on this particular agent."
The commission has this tough job of uncovering the evidence which then forces Iraq to make a declaration. The Iraqi policy seems to be that they tell the world what we already know.
Q: What is to stop the Iraqis from hiding evidence once they know where you are going on an inspection?
Taylor: The Special Commission is not required to give any notice about where we are going. It begins like this; I sit in our base at the Canal Hotel in downtown Baghdad and then just drive out of the gates with my team. The Iraqi escort teams are waiting and they just follow me. I don't say a thing. They are just riding along with their outriders and you have this extraordinary scene of the Keystone Cops going down the road and they're all wondering where you're going. They always ask me "Where are you going tomorrow?" and I say "I don't know. I'll tell you at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning."
Q: How did you come to find evidence that Iraq had biological weapons?
Taylor: Because they said "We have no biological weapons program" the Commission said "Right, we must and list every site that has a dual purpose capability, that could be involved in the development and production of biological weapons." That included things ranging from University Colleges like the College of Pharmacology, the Department of Hydrobiology, Hospitals, anything that has fermentation processes like breweries, dairies through to pharmaceutical production plants, veterinary vaccine production plants--I'm not naming them all- -we listed over 80 sites.
We had to work our way through all these and in doing that we uncovered bits of evidence. Probably one of the most significant ones was in March 1995 where we found evidence of the importation of growth media--a substance in which you can culture pathogenic organisms--they're used in hospitals, but in tiny quantities. But we found that Iraq was importing tons of the stuff, we had evidence of 40 tons. That would be enough to keep the country going for a decade- -some people say decades--so clearly this was going for some other purpose.
We uncovered this evidence in several ways; for example, companies who'd exported the stuff, we got the conveyancing receipts--the documentation from those companies--and went to Iraq and said "look, you've imported 40 tons, where is it?"
And they scratched their heads for a while and tried to come up with a story "Yes, it all went to hospitals, through our medical stores system and went out to regional hospitals."
We said "Fine, OK, give us the documents that show us where."
"Well, some of it was destroyed in riots, there was rioting in the provinces" That was meant to account for about ten tons of it, so we said "Fine, where's the rest?"
They produced a whole series of documents and I had to go and find out if they were real or false. And most of them were plainly false. The Iraqis were forced to admit that "Yes, well, we did have a weapons program but we weren't weaponising it." They didn't admit it straight away of course, it took until July. And we found a lot of the growth media sitting around in stores.
Q: What's the difference between having a weapons program and "weaponising" something?
Taylor: It's bad enough to produce the agents for weapons, that would be illegal under the Biological Weapons Convention. The next step is a major one, where you design the delivery means, the delivery systems. The engineering to disperse biological weapons is not something you can just go and do, you can't just stuff it into an agricultural sprayer. You have to get things the right particle size, you have to get it to the target. They've used artillery shells, 122mm. rockets, air delivered bombs called R-400s which they modified especially for it and they were working on prototype spray-tanks for aircraft, fortunately at the time of the Gulf War they had difficulty with the spray nozzles of the devices and had not quite completed them.
And they were widening the range of agents all the time. No. Whoever knows anything about biological weapon one was not surprised by the range of agents they used and were working on. They had bacteria, viruses, toxins: the whole range. Some incapacitating, some lethal, like Anthrax, like Botulinum, other very nasty weapons like a toxin called Aflatoxin which incapacitates people and is highly carcinogenic and kills you in a very nasty way. Things like Clostridium Perphlingum, which causes a nasty effect called Gas Gangrene and it causes your flesh to rot. And they were even experimenting with things like Camel-pox and animal diseases to see what their effects might be and if they could be weaponised. Also things like Wheat Cover-smut which is an anti-crop agent. It was an amazing range of a program which quite a lot of effort was put into, and it was interesting because the person who was responsible for production said that they accelerated the rate of production of biological weapons agents after the invasion of Kuwait and before Desert Shield.
Q: What did you discover this trip?
Taylor: I can't give the details, but we found evidence of another biological agent, a toxin. They had mentioned it before, but the work was far more extensive than had been declared. What they want to attain is the capability, because you don't need to actually store the agent. What you need is a capability to produce the agent at short notice
Q: Aren't you worried that they've kept something really serious back?
Taylor: Yes, a lot of people are too, not just me. Rolf Ekeus says they're hiding missiles.I mean, here we have the most intrusive inspection regime that any statehas ever experienced--an international inspection regime--and they can hide big things like Scud missiles.
Q: In the long-term, imagine the day comes when you feel Unscom can give Iraq a clean bill of health and it gets one. Realistically, surely as soon as they've got that Iraq is just going to start building WMDs again.
Taylor: If it's this regime then, yes. That's my personal view and I think that's the US government's view too. This regime is never going to get a clean bill of health. Well, I wouldn't go so far as to say that. All I'm saying is that as long as you have the present regime in place it's hard to imagine they would quit, given the extraordinary efforts they've taken to hide things from the Commission.
But looking at the military policies of neighboring states, one would assume that any Iraqi government would want to have equivalent WMD capabilities, the same as everyone around them.
There's certainly a lot of substance to that argument. But I think I'd want to make that judgement when I found out who was in power and what their relations might be with the Western powers and with the US in particular. But you raise a very important question: if Saddam Hussein were to die, for example, and not necessarily be pushed out by a coup, what would follow? The great fear is that it will become an Islamic state. But whoever is in power in Iraq, has obligations to UNSC resolution 687 not to have any WMDs, including missiles of more than 150km range, and to make complete declarations about that. Also issues of human rights--regardless of who is in power--and reparations and return of prisoners. That's all to do with Iraq, not a given government. They must also accept UNSC resolution 715, the long-term compliance monitoring. They must accept the inspection regime, no matter who's in power, so this will continue.
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ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MEETINGS, CONFERENCES, AND LECTURES
June 27-29, "International Collective Security Systems and the Mediterranean", in Corfu, Greece, sponsored by Ionian University and the Institute of International Relations of Panteion University. Prof. Ionannis Mazis at Ionian University (fax 30-661-22549) and Prof. Athanassios Platias at Panteion (phone 30-9240732, home fax 30-621-0800). duck Eli Levite and I are giving papers ther related to the Middle East.
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RESEARCH QUERIES--PLEASE HELP Omar Altalib requested
publications on the waqf in Israel. Please add suggestions of
your own. Two items on this subject are: Michael Dumper, Islam
and Israel: Muslim Religious Endowments and the Jewish State,"
(Washington: Institute for Palestine Studies, 1994). 192 pp.
Yaakov Reiter, Waqf in Jerusalem, (Jerusalem: Jerusalem Institute
for Israel Studies, 1991). [Thanks to Martin Kramer for his help)
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NEW PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST
Lori Plotkin, "Jordan-Israel Peace: Taking Stock, 1994-1997," an excellent detailed survey of relations between the two countries since their peace treaty. $11.00+shipping, 34pp. And "Toward 2000: Middle East Challenges for the Next Administration," report of annual conference. Both from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 70 pages. To order: info@washingtoninstitute.org SEE INFORMATION ON MERIA DISCOUNT, BELOW
Adam Garfinkle "Israel and Palestine: A Precarious Partnership" in The Washington Quarterly Summer 1997, pp. 3-22 is a detailed evaluation of recent developments in the peace process, from CSIS, 1800 K St NW, Suite 400 Washington DC. 20006.
Kemal Kirisci and Gareth Winrow, "The Kurdish Question and Turkey: An Example of a Trans-State Ethnic Conflict," Frank Cass, London, 1997. [Turkish translation: Kurt Sorunu: Kokeni ve Gelisimi, Tarih Vakfi, Istanbul, 1997.]
Yehuda Lukacs, Israel, Jordan and the Peace Process (Syracuse Univ. Press, 1997).
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SPECIAL INTEREST: INNOVATIVE USIS SERVICE
The United States Information Service (USIS) in Israel has a Web Site http://www.usis-israel.org.il featuring a number of U.S. government transcripts, press releases, and speeches; Human Rights Reports; a section on the Middle East peace process, a photo gallery, and links to other official U.S. government sites. Two interesting items available are:
STATE DEPARTMENT HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT FOR 1996 can be found at: http://www.state.gov/www/issues/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/96hrp_report_toc.html
TARGETING TERRORISM. Global Issues, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Information Service, can be found at: http://www.usis- israel.org.il/publish/journals/global/february97/ijge/0297.htm
Of special interest is a new USIS service. While this program is only available in Israel, check with the local USIS office for coverage in your country. The program, Digital Resources, can be reached at: res_tlv@usis-israel.org.il or, for Jerusalem: res_jer@usis-israel.org.il. Each month, subscribers receive a list of articles on many subjects they can order for free.
Among items listed for May:
ALGERIA: THE DIALECTIC OF ELECTIONS AND VIOLENCE, by Robert Mortimer, Current History, May 1997, pp. 231-235 Item DRMay-M1a
PERSPECTIVES ON THE EVOLUTION OF TURKISH STUDIES IN NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1946, by Howard Reed, Middle East Journal, Winter 1997, pp. 15-31. Item DRMay-M2a
U.S. SECURITY AID TO EGYPT & ISRAEL: POLITICALLY UNTOUCHABLE? by Duncan L. Clarke, Middle East Journal, Spring 1997, pp. 200-214. Item DRMay-M3a
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WEBSITES/GROUPS ONLINE
PeaceTalks Forum Page http://www.yudel.com//peacetalk/forum.htm monitor@mail.org is a discussion forum on the peace process.
Institut du Monde Arabe (Arab World Institute, Paris) URL: http://www.imarabe.com/ Email: ima@imarabe.com produces Qantara magazine on Arab and Mediterranean culture and other publications.
Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS, Iran) URL: http://www.ipis.org/ Email: info@ipis.org This research center is part of the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran and publishes five journals, samples from which are available on the home page. It also includes speeches by senior Iranian officials.
A site for Iran's newly elected president can be found at http://www.khatami.com/
Two of the main Algerian opposition forces have opened their own sites:
Rassemblement pour la Culture et la Democratie, has opened at http://www.RCD.asso.fr.
Islamic Front for Salvation (FIS) http://www.fisalgeria.org or http://207.58.122.145/
A new publication, the Britain-based Middle East Security Report provides a comprehensive weekly review of defense and security information on the Middle East. The weekly publication costs $32 a year for scholars and samples can be found at http://www.me-dialogue.demon.co.uk/
Haaretz, Israel's best newspaper, is now regularly available in English translation for some of its articles at: www.haaretz.co.il/eng
The first Palestinian cultural website has been opened by the Khalil Sakakini Cultural Center: http:www.sakakini.org
CAMERA, a group that monitors U.S. media Middle East coverage, has a site at: http://world.std.com/~camera
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We are asking magazines and publishers for discounts to MERIA readers. If you can offer such inducements, contact MERIA. Take advantage of benefits from being a MERIA reader:
NEW: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy offers MERIA readers 20 percent discount for the order of five copies or more of its publications. Be sure to mention MERIA!
NEW: INFO-PROD - RESEARCH (MIDDLE EAST) LTD. ipr@netvision.net.il does detailed market and other analysis for commercial clients. It offers subscriptions to its three publications via email, discounted to $640 a year (a 20 percent saving) for MERIA readers. Samples are available on request. A subscription includes:
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Middle East Hotline: immediate commercial implicaof crucial
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Middle East Briefing: in-depth coverage of major political,
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AND ALSO: Lawrence Joffe, Keesings Guide to the Middle East Peace Process, 10% discount on the 45 pound sterling price. Write Customer Services Manager, Liz Godden: lizg@pearson-pro.com
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Middle East Hotline: immediate commercial implicaof crucial
political developments. Issued several times a week.