Volume 5, No. 2 - June 2001
Volume 5, No. 2 - June 2001
By Ziya Onis
Editor's Summary: This article investigates the potential and limits of Turkey as a regional power in the post-Soviet Caucasus and Central Asian areas. The article suggests that cooperation efforts produced significant conflicts and also related the ability to play a constructive regional role to Turkey's internal capacity. Ironically, weak domestic capacity may be translated into an overactivist foreign policy and overambitious regional power roles with potentially destabilizing consequences.
The Soviet Union's breakdown
and the emergence of independent states in the Caucasus and Central Asia
presented Turkey with a unique opportunity to explore a new role as an
influential regional power. Turkey enjoyed ethnic and linguistic ties with five
states--Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirgizistan, and Turkmenistan--that
seemed to provide a solid foundation for its playing an influential part in
shaping their economic development, political direction, and external relations
Further, Turkey's success
story as a modern, secular and market-oriented state was presented as an
alternative model for these states in a post-Communist world. This vision
elicited support from the United States and Europe, as an alternative to the
Iranian Islamist model. Turkish foreign policymakers hoped that such leadership
would enhance the country's importance to the West in both strategic and
economic terms at a time when its old role in the Cold War context had
disappeared.
A decade after the start of
that new era, this article seeks to provide a broad assessment of Turkey's
relations with the states of the Caucasus and the Central Asian republics.
Traditionally, Turkish foreign
policy in the post-1923 Republican era has been characterized by two central
guiding principles. The first basic element concerned an unequivocal orientation
toward the West, an objective embodied in Turkey's quest for full membership in
the European Union. The second key element involved a conservative or defensive
approach to foreign policy which has tried to avoid extra-territorial interests
or activities extending beyond the country's borders.(1)
The very foundations of
Turkey's foreign policy however, were seriously challenged in the 1990s,
resulting in a more assertive policy in the Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, and
Central Asian republics. The key political figure in this shift was Turgut Ozal,
president of Turkey during the early 1990s, who had risen to prominence in the
previous decade as the architect of Turkey's neo-liberal economic reforms.
The first striking evidence of
the shift in foreign policy became evident during the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis as
Turkey took an active role in the U.S.-led coalition against Iraq, following the
invasion of Kuwait.(2) The new assertiveness was highlighted further in
relations with former Soviet republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia, which
Turkey was the first to recognize in 1991. This act was followed by intense
diplomatic efforts to forge close links.
Several underlying forces
contributed to a dramatic shift in Turkish foreign policy in the early 1990s.
During the Cold War era of bipolarism and superpower rivalry, Turkey had a
critical geostrategic position in the Western alliance and NATO, constituting a
formidable barrier against any Soviet expansionism toward the south. The end of
the Cold War, however, presented Turkey both with new opportunities and new
constraints. Following the USSR's breakup, Turkey's geostrategic value to the
West was no longer as clear-cut as it had been. Moreover, the rejection of
Turkey's bid to become a full-member of the European Union [EU] was widely
interpreted in domestic policy circles and the public as exclusion on explicitly
"cultural" (i.e., religious and ethnic) grounds.(3)
A deep sense of isolation and
insecurity on the part of the Turkish state was a natural corollary of all these
influences and--combined with changing regional conditions--encouraged a more
activist role. U.S. support for Turkey's involvement in the Middle East, the
Balkans, and the Caucasus also played an important part in this change.(4)
Turkey's embrace of the
"Turkic Republics" also embodied an important psychological dimension.
A closer bond with people of common historical descent was a means of overcoming
Turkey's traditional fear of isolation and insecurity, feelings compounded by
the negative attitude on the part of Europe and the Arab Middle East as well as
several ongoing conflicts around the country's own borders. The sense of
isolation is crucial in understanding both the initial euphoria concerning the
"Turkic" republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as the
subsequent development of close military and economic ties with Israel in the
Middle Eastern context.(5) It was also hoped, in the process, that an active
leadership role in the regions concerned would help to revitalize Turkey's
strategic value to the West and, thereby, enhance its own economic and security
interests.
Significant changes in
Turkey's domestic politics also contributed to the trend, particularly in
relation to the former Soviet republics. Traditionally, the foreign policymaking
process has been the exclusive domain of a small group of political figures and
career bureaucrats. Yet the recent resurgence of Islam and nationalism in
Turkish politics broadened the circles of those concerned with foreign policy
and trying to influence it.(6) A distinct foreign orientation emphasizing
non-European or non-Western dimensions of Turkish identity became the hallmark
of the Islamist and ultra-nationalist parties which became more significant in a
highly fragmented party system.(7)
Moreover, non-government
organizations in Turkey tried to establish influence and develop close cultural
and economic ties with the new nations of the Caucasus and Central Asia,
becoming an interest group advocating sustained closer relations. These included
entrepreneurial businesses as well as NGOs engaged in cultural activities such
as creating educational institutions to educate the future elites, with the aim
of furthering their close interaction with Turkey. The latter group includes
religious foundations such as the "Nurcus" led by moderate Islamists
and the Turkish nationalist Fethullah Gulen.(8) Finally, there were incipient
ethnic lobbies in Turkey by those who identify themselves as descended from
Caucasus immigrants.(9)
CONTEST
FOR INFLUENCE IN THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
Following the Soviet Union's
collapse, the Caucasus and Central Asia became the focal point of Turkey's
diplomatic efforts, peaking in the early 1990s. Turkey tried to capitalize on
the strong cultural and linguistic bonds with the new republics. The increasing
interest of the Turkish state in the region was symbolized by the formation of
the "Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) and the organization
of annual summits involving the presidents of Turkey and the Turkic Republics,
the very first of which was held in Ankara in October 1992. Clearly, these
efforts represented an attempt to institutionalize the relationship with these
new set of states. A "Turkish model" based on the country's reasonably
successful experience of mixed economy, parliamentary democracy and early
exposure to market-oriented reforms was projected to the post-Soviet states as a
guide for their transition. The likely alternatives seemed to be an
Islamist-based Iranian model or a return to Russian domination. Not
surprisingly, the Turkish model was promoted by the West and especially the
United States.
Looking back over that period,
Turkey's record as an influential power in the region appears rather mixed. On a
positive note, significant relations have developed. By the end of the 1990s,
2500 Turkish companies were operating in a wide range of investment projects in
the Central Asian republics, with their investment reaching $8.4 billion and
involving $4 billion in construction services. Trade volume climbed from a
meager $145 million in 1992 to over $5.6 billion in 1999. Moreover, Turkey
extended bank credits amounting to $1.5 billion, with official agencies such as
the Turkish Eximbank playing an instrumental role. Significant investments
undertaken by Turkey in telecommunications played an important role in linking
the republics to international markets, a factor of critical importance in their
transition process.
Significant efforts have also
been directed to the field of education. The Turkish government has developed a
large scholarship program which enables around 7000 students per annum to study
in Turkish universities. In addition, Turkey is cooperating with the governments
of the new republics in setting up vocational schools, providing the resources
necessary to finance the manpower and equipment needs of these schools. These
factual observations clearly highlight the constructive and cooperative role
that a regional power can perform in the post-Cold War context.(10) The
"Turkish model" also helped to orient the countries concerned towards
Europe. Increasingly, through their economic and cultural encounters with
Turkey, these Republics came to realize that they want to part of Europe not the
Middle East or Muslim World.
Yet, Turkey's attempts to play
a leadership role in the region also encountered a series of setbacks. The high
expectations on both sides subsided by the mid-1990s and have been replaced by a
more subdued, pragmatic approach with primary emphasis on relations based on
mutual economic benefits.
Several factors have been
responsible for the relative decline of Turkey's regional aspirations and its
attractiveness as a model. First, the newly liberated Republics were wary of any
type of domination by Turkey as an "elder brother," preferring a
relationship that was both more limited and more equal. The new republics were
also suspicious of Turkish attempts to influence their domestic politics,
particularly but not solely in Azerbaijan.(11) The strong nationalist or
"Pan-Turkic" sentiments prevalent in certain circles in Turkey that
talked in exaggerated terms about a Turkish sphere of influence added to
suspicion.(12)
Moreover, Russian influence
was by no means absent and the local leaders took into account the pressures and
dangers emanating from Moscow. Arguably, Russian/Soviet influence on culture and
political style has remained preeminent. The perfect symbol for this is that all
these countries' leaders, except the president of Azerbaijan, spoke Russian
rather than Turkish at the April 2001 Turkic summit in Istanbul. There are large
Russian ethnic populations throughout this area. It has also been easy for these
states to use (partly due to Moscow's pressure) Russian troops to maintain
internal stability and to combat domestic ethnic conflicts. Indeed, some of
these conflicts are also abetted and encouraged by Moscow.
In any case, Turkey was a
middle-income country, lacking the financial capacity to assist countries on a
grand scale. Turkey's own economic difficulties such as high inflation, limited
budgetary resources, and a costly war against Kurdish separatism, also cast
doubt over the value of the Turkish connection. The new states could deal with
the West directly for access to markets, arms, and technology, without using
Turkey as a middle-man. The Turkish model's democratic component, despite its
somewhat restrictive nature, proved unattractive to former the republics'
well-entrenched authoritarian political structures which had little interest in
fostering more political participation and pluralism. Indeed, all of these
states have followed non-democratic models, perhaps based more on the USSR than
on Turkey.
External forces also
contributed to the relative decline in Turkey's regional ambitions. Despite the
USSR's collapse, Russia remained of great importance to the succeeding and
seceding nations. Inheriting the Soviet-created division of labor, the republics
continued to be economically dependent on Moscow and also lived in the shadow of
Russia's military power and cultural influence.
From the Western viewpoint,
the "Turkish model" also appeared to lose its earlier appeal following
a realization that initial fears concerning Iran's influence had been
exaggerated. Further, following the steady resurgence of Russian power in the
region after 1993, and given the importance of the region's energy resources,
the West, and the United States in particular, made a strategic choice to opt
for more direct involvement, rather than leaving that job to regional allies
such as Turkey.
From a purely economic point
of view, the most attractive feature of the Caucasus and the Central Asian
republics concerns the significant oil and natural gas resources there. As a
country lacking vital energy reserves itself, Turkey hoped to capitalize on
energy imports from the region, reducing its overdependence on the Middle East
and seeking to become a convenient transit route to Western markets. Turkey
carried out an intense diplomatic effort to ensure that a large part of the oil
and natural gas be exported through Turkey, mainly by construction of a pipeline
to bring Azeri oil to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, a project competing
directly with those promoted by Russia and Iran.(13)
In addition to the governments
of energy-producing countries, the regional powers and the United States,
transnational oil companies themselves constitute a significant pressure group.
While official U.S. policy has been in favor of constructing the Baku-Ceyhan
pipeline--based on the desire to limit Russian and Iranian regional influence
and leverage over energy supplies--the oil companies are reluctant given the
relatively high cost of the project unless they receive massive subsidies. There
are also concerns for the security of the pipeline in Turkey (given the
possibility of Kurdish nationalist sabotage), secessionist-torn Georgia, and
given the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Turkish ambitions in this
sphere will also hinge on developments in Iran. The United States is unwilling
to cooperate with the existing regime in Iran. Yet seeking to encourage or
reward political liberalization in Iran, U.S. policy might accept a pipeline
through Iran to the Persian Gulf, which is also financially more attractive.
Turkey's best hope is that the region's energy resources will be attractive
enough to justify the construction of multiple pipelines, making the Baku-Ceyhan
project a feasible option. Continuing high international energy prices are also
required to make development of the region's resources commercially desirable.
RELATIONS
WITH RUSSIA: COOPERATION AND CONFLICT
Turkish-Russian interactions
highlight how the relationship between two key regional powers in the post-Cold
War context can be characterized by significant cooperation and conflict at the
same time. Russia emerged as Turkey's primary partner in this economic arena
during the 1990s and this is not surprising considering the highly complementary
nature of their economic situations. Turkey seemed to possess an edge over
Russia in terms of entrepreneurship, market-orientation, and making consumer
goods, while Russia had a clear advantage in terms of energy supplies, notably
in the area of natural gas.
The intense interaction
between the two economies was, in part, due to major diplomatic efforts on the
part of both countries. A major step in this direction on Turkey's part involved
the inclusion of Russia in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Project (BSCE).
BSEC which came into effect in 1992 was a major regional initiative orchestrated
by Turkey and including all countries bordering on the Black Sea plus
Greece.(14)
The extent of Turkish-Russian
economic relations greatly exceeded those established with Azerbaijan and all
the Central Asian states. Turkey's economic relations with Russia reached a peak
in 1997. The overall bilateral trade volume, including non-registered trade (the
so-called "luggage trade") by tourists, reached around $10 billion in
1997, making Russia the second largest trading partner for Turkey. Furthermore,
Turkish builders did $8.5 billion of business in Russia in 1997. Meanwhile,
Turkey's purchases of natural gas from Russia rose from 6 billion cubic meters
to 10.5 billion in 2001, and a projected 13 billion expected for 2001.
Turkish-Russian economic
relations received a devastating blow when the Russian economy collapsed in the
summer of 1998, resulting in a significant decline of Turkish exports to the
Russian markets. Indeed, this event hurt Turkey's economy more than the 1997
Asian economic crisis. It is widely expected, though, that economic relations
will grow in future given the size and complementary nature of the two
countries.(15)
In spite of deepening
relations on the purely economic plane, however, overall relations between
Russia and Turkey in the post-Cold War era have been characterized by
considerable friction and conflict. This situation has deep historical roots
going back many decades.(16) The actions of both parties contributed to the
friction and conflict during the course of the 1990s. During the early post-Cold
War period, in the immediate aftermath of the USSR's collapse, the Russian
Federation, mainly concerned with internal problems of reconstruction and
reform, showed an orientation toward the West. From 1993 onward, however,
Russian foreign policy increasingly focused on regaining supremacy in the
"near abroad," namely the area ruled by the former Soviet
republics.(17)
Whilst many analysts concur
that the restoration of the old Soviet empire is not the objective of Russian
foreign policy, there exists a consensus that there has been a steady resurgence
of Russian power and influence, closely related to Moscow's greater power
compared to the other former Soviet republics. A fundamental objective
underlying Russian policy toward the "near abroad" is to keep
outsiders like Turkey and Iran from interfering in what Russia considers its
natural sphere of influence. Turkey, in this respect, is considered to be an
even greater threat than Iran, given its more assertive approach toward several
former Soviet republics on the basis of common identity and with Western
support. Russia's own economic weakness coupled with the apparent intrusion of
external powers into the former Soviet area have contributed to a dramatic rise
of nationalist sentiment in Russia's domestic politics, which, in turn, helped
strengthen the hand of "Euroasianists, focusing on the "near
abroad" as the essential pillar of Russian foreign policy, against those
with an explicitly Western orientation.(18)
From the official Turkish
perspective, the resurgence of Russian power and influence has been interpreted
as a fundamental threat to its own security interests. It is believed that an
emerging security vacuum in the post-Soviet area brings more potential
instability than is commonly understood by U.S. or EU leaders.(19)
The underlying frictions
between the two countries have been aggravated further by the emergence of the
pipeline competition, with each state having its own clear plan for pipeline
construction. Russia has vigorously opposed the Baku-Ceyhan project. The
competition for influence over transport of energy resources from the region to
highly lucrative Western markets is likely to remain a persistent source of
conflict as long as all the major regional powers continue to view the issue as
a zero-sum game and advocate their own plans and the exclusion of alternatives.
Thus, Russia seeks pipelines that travel through its territory, guaranteeing its
regional hegemony as well as financial profits from this routing.
Finally, the positions adopted
by the regional powers regarding each other's internal politics have also
contributed to rising tensions and instability. Turkey has been a vocal critic
of Russian actions in Chechnya, influenced by the influential "Chechen
lobby" in Turkey. Russia resents these criticisms. Yet Russia provided
support over a long time for the Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey,
generating criticism from the Turkish side.(20)
The Caucasus and Central Asia
alongside Turkey do have the potential to be a region given some common history
and the complementary resources and economies. In comparison to the energy
resources of some of the post-Soviet states, Turkey is heavily dependent on
imports of energy resources but at the same time possesses a comparative
advantage in terms of entrepreneurship and experience of market-oriented
development as well as the attraction of a large internal market with a
reasonably well-educated labor force. It also offers to manage and intensify the
former Soviet republics' links to Western markets, institutions, and U.S.
support.
Given this basic complementary
nature of their underlying economic structures, Turkey's active and assertive
approach as a regional actor has resulted in a wave of intense economic
interaction with Russia and a certain subset of the former Soviet Republics.
Indeed, by the end of the 1990s, the former Soviet Union had emerged as the
second most important region in terms of its overall weight in Turkey's external
economic relations, following the European Union which has persistently been
Turkey's principal trading partner. Turkey's efforts, in turn, have contributed
towards the reconstruction of the post-Soviet states, facilitating a smoother
transition from communism than otherwise would have been the case.
Nonetheless, Turkey's attempts
to play active role in the region in purely economic terms have been heavily
constrained by the inherent limitations of its own economic capacity. The
experience with the Black Sea Economic Cooperation scheme constitutes a clear
example. The BSEC, as a typical case of a "south-south" regional
scheme, could not flourish in the ways that it was originally anticipated for
the simple reason that there was no "northern partner" which could
provide the capital injection required to build the regional integration scheme.
Shortage of capital has also constrained Turkey's influence with respect to the
Caucasus and the Central Asian states. The extremely high expectations generated
during the early phase of the post-Cold War era, partly due to lack of
information on the part of the newly liberated republics, gave way to a certain
sense of disappointment following the realization that the Turkish economy was
not able to supply their capital needs. Hence, they increasingly looked to the
outside world and tried to organize their relations with the West or Japan
directly rather than using Turkey as a bridge in the process.
Another interesting question
is whether Turkey's attempts to play an ambitious role contributed to a greater
degree of security or stability in the region. One can certainly identify such
instances but Turkey's identity-based foreign policy was not very helpful in
alleviating bilateral conflicts, most notably that of Armenia and Azerbaijan in
the Nagorno-Karabagh dispute. Instead, Turkey actively supported Azerbaijan on
grounds of common culture and identity. A far-sighted policy would have
developed closer links with both countries, possibly also reducing the efforts
of Armenia and the Armenian lobby in the West to criticize Turkey. By reducing
the conflict, Turkey might also have made it easier to portray itself as the
best route for exporting the region's oil and natural gas, especially if the
pipeline could have been routed through Armenia rather than following a
roundabout path.
To be fair, Turkish foreign
policy has been changing in the directions suggested. And, of course, as a
middle power Turkey had a restricted domain of autonomous action compared to
bigger powers, especially Russia and the United States. Whilst the scope for
independent action is necessarily limited, this does not detract from Turkey's
strategic value to the West, especially in counteracting the growth of Russian
power in the region.
NOTES
1. On the characterization of
Turkish foreign policy during the post-Cold War context and the new foreign
policy activism, see Yasemin Celik, Contemporary Turkish Foreign Policy
(Westport, Conn: Praeger, 1999); Heinz Kramer, A Changing Turkey: The
Challenge to Europe and the United States (Washington D.C: The Brookings
Institution Press, 2000); and Alan Makovsky and Sabri Sayari, eds., Turkey's
New World. Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy (Washington D.C: The
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000). On Turkey as a
"middle" or "regional" power, see Meltem Muftuler and
Muberra Yuksel, "Turkey: A Middle Power in the New Order" in Andrew F.
Cooper, ed., Niche Diplomacy. Middle Powers after the Cold War (NY, St.
Martin's Press, 1997), pp. 184-196.
2. On Turkish policy during
the Gulf War and the implications of the Gulf War itself on the subsequent
course of Turkish foreign policy during the course of the 1990s, see Sabri
Sayari "Turkey and the Middle East in the 1990s," Journal of
Palestine Studies 26, 3 (Spring 1997): 44-55 and Meliha Altunisik, "The
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement in the Post-Cold War Era," Middle Eastern
Studies, 36, 2 (April 200): 179-191.
3. For an elaboration of this
point see Ziya Onis, "Turkey, Europe and Paradoxes of Identity:
Perspectives on the International Context of Democratization," Mediterranean
Quarterly, 10, 3 (Summer 1999): 109-136 and Meltem Muftuler-Bac,
"Through the Looking Glass: Turkey in Europe," Turkish Studies,
1,1 (Spring 2000): 21-35
4. On the nature of
Turkish-American relations during the post-Cold War era and the conflicts which
arose between the two allies by Turkey's attempts to play a regional role, see
Kemal Kirisci, "U.S.-Turkish Relations: From Uncertainty to Closer
Ties," Insight Turkey 2, 4 (October-December 2000): 37-64 and
"Turkey and the United States: Ambivalent Allies," Middle East
Review of International Affairs, 2,4 (December 1998), Ian O. Lesser,
"Beyond 'Bridge or Barrier': Turkey's Evolving Relations with the
West" in Alan Makovsky and Sabri Sayari, eds., Turkey's New World.
Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy, 203-221 and Kemal Kirisci and
Barry Rubin, eds., Turkey and Its World: Emergence of a Multi-Regional Power
(Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Reinner Publishers, 2001). So far, conflicts between
the two allies have manifested themselves in the context of the Balkans and the
Middle East in relation to the handling of the Bosnian crisis and the position
of Northern Iraq. Conflicts can also arise, in the future, however, in the
context of the Caucasus and Central Asia especially if the oil pipeline scheme
proposed by Turkey is not realized.
5. For a documentation of
Turkey's regional role in the Middle East and its vigorous attempts in
developing a close alliance with Israel in the aftermath of the Gulf Crisis, see
Meliha Altunisik, "Turkish Policy toward Israel," in Alan Makovsky and
Sabri Sayari, eds., Turkey's New World. Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign
Policy, 59-73.
6. On the ideology of
"Pan-Turkism", see Jacob M. Landau, Pan-Turkism from Irredentism to
Cooperation (London: Hurst and Company, 1995). For an analysis of the
resurgence of "neo-Ottomanism" in Turkey and the influence on foreign
policy behavior, notably in the early and mid-1990s, see M. Hakan Yavuz,
"Turkish Identity and Foreign Policy in Flux: The Rise of
Neo-Ottomanism," Critique. Journal for Critical Studies of the Middle
East, No. 12 (Spring 1998): 19-41. Whilst the Balkans constitute a key point
of intersection between the two ideologies, the central difference lies in the
fact that the former is oriented primarily toward Caucasus and Central Asia,
with the latter displaying a more explicit orientation towards the Arab Middle
East.
7. On the impact of the
globalization on Turkish democracy during the course of the 1990s and the rise
of identity politics as a key factor in the electoral contest, see Ziya Onis,
"Neoliberal Globalization and the Democracy Paradox: The Turkish General
Elections of 1999," Journal of International Affairs 54, 1 (Fall,
2000): 283-306. It is important to emphasize in this context that the primary
focus of the Islamist parties in Turkey such as the Welfare Party or its
successor, the Virtue Party, was the Arab Middle East. Their influence over the
more secular regimes of the Muslim states in the post-Soviet space remained
quite marginal.
8. On the importance of
non-state actors in forging close relations between Turkey and the
"Turkic" Republics, see Bulent Aras, "Turkey's Policy in the
Former Soviet South," Turkish Studies 1,1 (Spring 2000): 36-58. On
the intimate link between domestic politics and foreign policy towards the
Caucasus and Central Asia, see Gareth Winrow, Turkey and the Caucasus:
Domestic Interests and Security Concerns (London: Royal Institute for
International Affairs, 2000).
9. On the importance and a
detailed documentation of "ethnic lobbies" with close links to the
Caucasus and other parts of the former Soviet Union such as Chechnya, see Gareth
Winrow, Turkey and the Caucasus: Domestic Interests and Security Concerns.
10. The information provided
is drawn from the official web page of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
See "Turkey's Relations with Caucasian Republics" and "Turkey's
Relations with the Central Asian Republics" at
<http://www.mfa.gov.tr>
11. For evidence on Turkish
attempts to influence the domestic politics of the countries concerned, see
Idris Bal, "Uluslararasi Politikada Turk Modelinin Yukselisi ve
Dususu," (The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Model in International
Politics), Bilig 14 (Summer 2000). A striking example of such
intervention involved the explicit support provided by the Turkish government to
the opposition movement in Azerbaijan led by Ebulfeyz Elcibey. The explicit
support provided by Turkey was instrumental in strengthening the opposition
movement and its subsequent rise to power. This type of action was clearly
interpreted as a potential threat to existing regimes in Central Asia.
12. The pervasive nature of
these sentiments during the early 1990s are aptly illustrated by the fact that
Suleyman Demirel, the Prime Minister of Turkey at the time, made a similar
pronouncement in 1992. See Suleyman Demirel, "Newly Emerging Centre," Turkish
Review (Winter 1992). Turkey's relations with the Caucasus and the Central
Asian Republics has generated a large literature. For a small sample, see
Mustafa Aydin, "Turkey and Central Asia: Challenges of Change," Central
Asian Survey 15, 2 (1996): 157-177, Oleg M. Smolansky, "Turkish and
Iranian Policies in Central Asia," in Hafeez Malik, ed., Central Asia:
Its Strategic Importance and Future Prospects (New York: St. Martin's Press,
1994), 283-310; Gareth Winrow, "Turkish Policy toward Central Asia and the
Transcaucasus," in Alan Makovsky and Sabri Sayari, eds., Turkey's New
World. Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy, 116-130; and Philip
Robins, "Between Sentiment and Self-Interest: Turkey's Policy Toward
Azerbaijan and the Central Asian States," Middle East Journal 47, 4
(Autumn 1993): 593-610.
13. Pipeline politics in the
region has generated a substantial literature. See Gareth Winrow, "Turkey
and Caspian Energy: The Importance of Geopolitics," Insight Turkey,
2,2 (April/June 2000): 63-76 and "The Great Game: Whose Game, How
Great?," Private View Special Issue, 9 (Autumn 2000); Geoffrey Kemp,
Energy Superbowl: Strategic Politics and the Persian Gulf and the Caspian
Basin (Washington D.C: Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, 1997); Bruce
Kuniholm, "The Geopolitics of the Caspian Basin," The Middle East
Journal 54, 4 (Fall 2000): 546-577; and Adrian W. Burke, "Pipeline
Politics: U.S. Corporations Lead Foreign Economic Policy," Journal of
South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 24, 1 (Fall 2000): 1-15.
14. For a good discussion of
the Black Sea Economic Co-operation Project, see Bulent Gultekin and Ayse Mumcu,
"Black Sea Economic Co-operation" in Vojtech Mastny and Craig Nation,
eds., Turkey Between East and West: Challenges Facing a Rising Regional Power
(Boulder CO: Westview Press, 1996), 179-202.
15. Data on Turkish-Russian
economic relations are drawn from the official website of the Turkish Ministry
of Foreign Affairs. See "Turkish-Russian Relations" at
<http://www.mfa.gov.tr>. Also relevant in this context is DEIK/Turk-Rus Is
Konseyi, 2000 Yilinda Turkiye-Rusya Iliskileri (Istanbul: Foreign Economic
Relations Board - Joint Turkish and Russian Business Council, 2000). On the
economic and security dimensions of Turkish-Russian relations in the post-Cold
War era, see Gulten Kazgan, "The Political Economy of Relations between
Turkey and Russia," in Libby Rittenberg, ed., The Political Economy of
Turkey in the Post-Cold War Era: Going West and Looking East? (Westport,
Conn: Praeger, 1998) and Duygu Bozoglu Sezer, "Turkish-Russian Relations:
Geopolitical Competition and Economic Partnership," Turkish Studies
1,1 (Spring 2000): 59-82 respectively.
16. See Norman Stone,
"Turkey-Russia: A Comparative Analysis on the Long-term". Paper
presented at the French Anatolian Institute, Istanbul, Turkey (December 2000).
Also relevant in this context is Alexei Vassiliev, "Turkey and Iran in
Transcaucasia and Central Asia" in Anoushiravan Ehteshami, ed., From the
Gulf to Central Asia. Players in the New Great Game (Exeter: University of
Exeter Press, 1994): 129-145.
17. For a detailed
documentation of the shift of Russian foreign policy after 1993 and the
resurgence of Russian power in the region, see Karen Dawisha, "Russian
Foreign Policy in the Near Abroad and Beyond," Current History
(1998): 330-334, Adeed Dawisha and Karen Dawisha, eds., The Making of Foreign
Policy in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk NY: M.E. Sharpe,
1995) and Rajan Menon, Yuri E. Fedorov and Ghita Nodia, eds., Russia, the
Caucasus and Central Asia: The 21st Century Security Environment (Armonk,
NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1999).
18. For a penetrating analysis
of developments in Russia's domestic politics with a focus on the inherent
limitations of Russia's representative democracy and the dominance of the
nationalistic discourse, see Stephen White, "Russia, Elections and
Democracy," Government and Opposition 35,3 (Summer 2000): 302-334.
19. For conflicting
interpretations involving the resurgence of Russian power in the region and the
security threats posed as a result on the part of Turkey and the Western powers,
see Ian Lesser, "Beyond 'Bridge or Barrier': Turkey's Evolving Security
Relations with the West" in Alan Makovsky and Sabri Sayari, eds., Turkey's
New World: Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy.
20. On Russian support for the
Kurds and Turkish support for the Chechens and the conflicts generated as a
result, see Gareth Winrow, Turkey and the Caucasus: Domestic Interests and
Security Concerns.
Ziya
Onis is professor of International Relations, Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey.
An earlier version of the paper was presented under the title "Turkey and
Regional Security in the Middle East and Central Asia" at the Conference on
"Economics and Security in the Middle East" organized by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies and held at Rabat, Morocco, June
27-29, 1999.