WATER-RELATED COOPERATION BETWEEN TURKEY AND ISRAEL

Dr. Konuralp Pamukcu

Outweighing oil, water is becoming more and more crucial strategic natural resource in the Middle East because of high population growth, rapid urbanization, improper water management and pollution of fresh water resources. This brings to minds water war scenarios. Nevertheless, water can and should be an element of cooperation rather than a casus belli. This paper argues that water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel --two dominant powers in their river basins, the Euphrates/Tigris and the Jordan River Basins respectively-- may lead to a more comprehensive cooperation in the region by increasing the efficiency of demand-side water management and more crucially, water supply through non-conventional methods such as water import. Existing positive diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel and their current hydropolitics provide a foundation for such a cooperation. Specifically, this cooperation may include diverse projects like water import, desalination, water bank, water data bank, joint agricultural production, agro-technology and water treatment that could attract the attentions of other riparian countries in these basins. By assuring all riparian contributions, this   inter-basin cooperation for overcoming water deficits seems as a precondition to the Middle East Peace.

A rapidly growing cooperation between Turkey and Israel has been easily observed in political, economic and military fields during the Middle East Peace Process, especially after the Declaration of Principles signed between Israel and Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) on September 13, 1993. A certain sympathy for each other - due to Jewish emigration from Spain to Anatolia in the fifteenth century, the significant Jewish contributions to the Ottoman Empire and Turkey - coincides with today's well-defined mutual benefits between these two countries. Having common characteristics --the only Middle Eastern democracies, secular and pro-Western states, non-Arab nations-- enables them to widen the spectrum of bilateral agreements in various fields of common interest.

One of the fields of common interest between Turkey and Israel is fresh water, a significant geo-strategic resource in the Middle East. Both countries have serious problems with other riparian countries on the allocation of waters in their river basins, respectively the Euphrates/Tigris and the Jordan River Basins. Since they are the dominant powers in their own basins, they are capable of determining use of transboundary waters according to their own national interests despite the protests of other riparian countries. However, for the sake of a continuous peace in the region, which provides political stability and economic welfare, the reasonable desires of the unhappy riparian countries, namely Syria, Iraq, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority should be satisfied and a consensus on the allocation of waters should be reached. Because water dispute is the main obstacle on the way of the Mideast Peace.

This paper asks whether water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel may settle the water dispute in the Euphrates/Tigris and the Jordan River Basins. For a satisfactory answer, firstly, facilitating factors for cooperation between two countries will be analyzed by pointing out the common characteristics they have. Secondly, an emphasis will be put on Turkish and Israeli hydropolitics for indicating that such a cooperation could be an initial step for settlement of the water dispute in the region where water is quite scarce. Finally, several possible projects will be presented as the instances of water-related cooperation to increase water supply, and efficiency in water demand management.   Common Characteristics

Turkey and Israel are two democratic countries with free market economies in the Middle East. Both of them are secular and share Western values. They are firmly allied with the Western countries. However, their pro-Western foreign policies create a problem of regional legitimacy for both, "since most Arabs perceive Turkey and Israel as the intruders and, the extensions of the Western World and civilization into the region"1. This Arab perception additionally contributes to the Turkish-Israeli friendship. Moreover, both countries are suffering from recurrent cross-border terroristic assaults, and are being challenged by essential religious fundamentalism which opposes to their foreign policy outputs.

Since Turkey and Israel share the principles of territorial integrity and secure borders, and they are in favor of economic cooperation, they signed a "Memorandum on Mutual Understanding and Guidelines on Cooperation" in Jerusalem on November 14, 1993 and a "Military Education and Cooperation Agreement on February 24, 1996. According to the latter, which has been heavily criticized by the Arab World, joint military projects and training would be realized between Turkey and Israel2. In the Memorandum Turkey and Israel declared their willingness to increase the scope of trade, economic and technological cooperation. The Article 3 of the Memorandum says:

"The Parties shall promote trade, economic and technological cooperation, and to this end, encourage and facilitate contacts between their public and private sector  organizations, in various fields such as industry, agriculture, solar energy, research and development, natural resources, tourism, transport, environmental protection and other spheres of mutual interest,on the basis of the principles of equality and mutual benefit, within a regional solidarity approach. They shall  also encourage establishment of joint ventures and projects, inter-alia, in the areas of agriculture, natural resources, agro-industry, telecommunications, medical  equipment, energy and computers."3

Indeed, the volume of trade between Turkey and Israel rose in 1995 to nearly double the volume in 1994, reaching about $450 million. Most of the trade between two countries includes chemicals and minerals, for use in industry and agriculture. During Turkish President Suleyman Demirel's visit to Israel on March 11, 1996, a number of agreements to encourage and conserve investments, to prevent double taxation and to establish a free trade area were signed. President Demirel visited Israel with a delegation of some 200, including members of Parliament, university heads, and about 70 businessmen4. Progress has occurred in the field of tourism; while in 1986 7,000 Israeli tourists visited Turkey, in 1992 this number reached 150,000, spending $150 million in Turkey.  The Israel-Turkish relations were further improved by the visits of Turkey's Chief of General Staff Ismail Hakki Karadayi to Israel on February 24, 1997 and Israel's Foreign Minister David Levy to Turkey on April 10, 1997. Even during Islamist Welfare Party led-coalition, new military and economic agreements were signed with Israel. According to the military agreement, signed on August 26, 1996, Israel would refurbish some 54 Turkish F-4 Phantoms. On the early days of December 1996, the Turkish-Israel Business Council had met in Istanbul to implement the March trade agreement. 40 Israeli and 97 Turkish representatives of various companies were present in the meeting. The second one was held in Jerusalem on December 26, in which a custom agreement, lowering tariffs for goods traded between two countries, was signed.   Cooperation on Water

The growing bilateral agreements in various fields between the two countries may also include water related cooperation leading to alternative solutions for water dispute in the Jordan River Basin as well as in the Euphrates/Tigris River Basin. Possible cooperations range from water import to agro-technology, from regional water market to "Middle East Economic Union".  The water related cooperation between Turkey and Israel is so substantial that it will precisely affect all other riparian countries in both river basins. In order to direct this effect positively it is crucial to take into account the wishes and contributions of other riparian countries. However, due to traditional mistrust and ill-feeling among the Middle Eastern countries, reaching a political consensus seems a long way off with many obstacles.

In essence, all these riparian countries have been taking significant steps toward a peaceful solution since 1991, but still more remains to be done. They know very well that economic and ecological interdependence urge them to reach a political consensus on the basis of regional cooperation that offers them legitimate and permanent benefits.

This paper claims that water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel by accommodating the reasonable expectations of other riparian countries is a necessary step for overcoming the Middle East water dispute. Turkey and currently, Israel are the upstream5 and dominant powers in their own river basins, so they can easily manipulate water supply according to their national interests. Without their permission and participation there is no way for the downstream riparian countries to reallocate transboundary waters unless they behave illegally6. Due to their advantageous positions Turkey and Israel want to preserve the status quo. Within this context these two countries' willingness to cooperate with each other becomes a significant factor in the region. They should perceive that they can settle their problems with their Arab neighbors, especially with Syria, only if they leave their defensive hydropolitics in favor of political consensus. The cooperation between two powerful upstream countries for increasing water supply and achieving an efficient water demand management in their own countries and more crucially, in the region offers a mere means to break today's deadlock.

This is why decision-making actors from two countries have supported such cooperation. Shimon Peres, while he was Israel^Òs Foreign Minister, said that the Israeli response to the Turkish offer to supply water was positive and if suitable arrangements could be worked out, Israel was ready to purchase water from Turkey7. The Turkish offer had come from Hikmet Cetin, then Turkey^Òs Foreign Minister, who defined Turkey's position "as part of the peace process". Turkey is preparing to supply water to Israel and her Arab neighbors from the rivers in the southern coast of Anatolia, namely the Manavgat, the Goksu, the Seyhan and the Ceyhan. Hikmet Cetin doubted if a lasting peace between Israel and Syria, Jordan and the Palestinians could be achieved without the addition of Turkish water supplies8.

Displaying a support for such a cooperation Shimon Peres pointed out that Israel had purchased natural gas, and would purchase water. For him Turkey play a significant role in solving the water problem and achieving the Mideast Peace as having enough water to supply to the region9. Similarly, David Granit, Israel's former Ambassador to Ankara, approved Peres declaring that they were open to all projects which would supply water to the region10. On the other hand, Adnan Abu Odeh, Jordan's Ambassador to the United Nations, stated he strongly believed that "Turkish supply of water is imperative" to Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Dr. Jawad al-Anani, Director of the Center for Economic and Technical Studies in Amman, agreed with Abu Odeh on importing water from Turkey11. Abu Odeh further argued that the Syrians might alleviate their present opposition to a pipeline bringing water from Turkey if they realized Israel would not consider withdrawing from the Golan Heights and the southern Lebanon unless there was assured water for Israel from Turkey, 12.

Abu Odeh's view is based on water shortage in the Jordan River Basin. Given the projected population growth13 and economic development, demand for water over the next 50 years in Israel, Jordan and Palestine will exceed supply, because demand is expected to reach 6.5 billion cubic meters per year (CM/y), while quantity of existing sources at that time is estimated to supply only 3 billion CM/y. This means a severe water deficit that requires new water supplies14. Therefore, the Article 9.1 of the "Declaration on Principles for Cooperation on Water-Related Matters and New and Additional Water Resources" signed by Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority in Oslo, Norway on February 13, 1996 says that the parties will study in order to determine their feasibility on "acquisition and import of water including the possibility of carrying such waters through existing or new supply systems"15.

The average annual flow of the Jordan River is estimated to be approximately 1,476 million cubic meter (MCM) at the entrance to the Dead Sea16. This represents roughly 1.8 per cent of the average annual flow of the Nile River at Aswan, Egypt17; 3 per cent of the Tigris River and less than 10 per cent of the Euphrates River18. This relatively small amount of annual flow of the Jordan River is priced as only $110 million a year as an economic commodity by Franklin Fisher, Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and his team from Harvard University19 though Israel, Jordan, Syria and the Palestinians could find reasons for fighting for it.

The Jordan River Basin provides 60 per cent of Israel's total water budget. Israel's annual renewable water supply amounts to 1,800 MCM/y, of which 60 per cent is groundwater and 40 per cent is surface water20. Israel utilizes 95 per cent of her total annual renewable water supply21 which may cause approximately 375 MCM water deficit by the year 201022.

Israel is heavily dependent on water resources that are shared by other riparian countries in the basin. She extracts 455 MCM/y from the shared aquifers in the West Bank, especially from Yarkon-Taninim Aquifer (or Mountain Aquifer) which is one of the three groundwater basins of Israeli National Water System. The Yarkon-Taninim Aquifer is Israel's main reservoir for drinking water in the Dan Region, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beer Sheva23. In addition, Israel withdraws 1150-1215 MCM/y from the Jordan/Yarmouk River System which is shared by Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinians24. All these figures indicate the hydrological interdependence in the basin that causes water allocation problems.

Due to high population growth, increase in standard of living of the populations and their expectations, abundant use of agricultural water and less efficiency of water distribution systems in the river basin25 water demand can not be satisfied by existing water resources shared by the riparian countries. Even though Israel takes some measures for adjusting water demand by reducing 10 per cent of irrigation since 198626, re-using 60 per cent of her sewage27, developing efficient irrigation methods; the water deficit in Israel proper will not be balanced by using only demand-side water management instruments. Since supply-side measures should be developed for bridging the gap, the existing tension among the riparian countries is further heightened. For example, the Golan Heights which controls the headwaters of the Jordan/Yarmouk River System, including the Banias River, the Hasbani River, the Wazani Stream and other springs, is now a cornerstone in the negotiations between Israel and Syria. Israeli defense analyst Ze'ev Schiff says "... as long as the sources of the Jordan cannot be secured, Israel cannot withdraw from the Golan Heights"28 although Syria wants precisely the Golan Heights from Israel without any condition for continuing negotiations29. Another uncertain point is related to the future status of the West Bank which has significant water resources for the Israelis and the Palestinians. Israel wishes certainly to continue to exploit the West Bank aquifers regardless of a Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank in future. Otherwise, she will need urgently new water resources instead of these aquifers to meet even her drinkable fresh water demand. Actually, it is clear that the Palestinians and the Jordanians will suffer in future from serious water shortages. These nations have water amounts less than 125 CM/y per capita, that is the minimum water requirement for life30. It seems that the 1993 Declaration of Principles between Israel and PLO and the 1994 Peace Treaty between Israel and Jordan are important attempts to start but not sufficient to overcome the existing water dispute in the basin unless they include all other parties31.

Today the conventional water supply in the basin is inadequate to meet all the riparian countries' needs. Without any suspicion, this water scarcity continues to be a reason for political problems among the riparian countries unless additional water supplies are developed. Because, contest for small amount of water causes overexploitation, overexploitation leads to water and soil pollution, pollution further decreases the water availability and this vicious circle tightens the tensions among riparian countries.  Within the given frame the rational solution is to increase the water supply by developing non-conventional water resources. The financial cost of developing this kind of additional water is so high that this attempt should be supported by water saving measures using agro-technological and water treatment methods.  A particular way of providing non-conventional sources is desalination of sea- water and brackish water. This method, essentially, has been used since 1957 in the Middle East32 so widely that 35 per cent of all desalination plants in the world are located in this region and their capacities equal to 65 per cent of total world capacity33.The constraint of this method is its high cost. The price of desalinated water per cubic meter (CM) equals to 12-16 times of cubic meter of natural water34. Israel has attempted to reduce this cost using solar energy. Today the cost is normally $1.10 per CM, but, according to the World Bank study it could be reduced to $0.70 per CM by the year 2000. The required investment for the desalination would be $3.3 billion and the reclamation of wastewater would require $3 billion over the next 50 years35. It should be taken into consideration that the given cost of desalination does not include transportation of the water from coast to interior regions. Energy for pumping desalinated water and installation of pipelines will increase the cost. As shown in the 1991 Gulf War the desalination plants are vulnerable against military attack and can be seriously threatened by off-shore pollution36.

Another way of developing non-conventional water supply is water import by pumping through pipelines or transferring with floating water bags37. This way can be implemented if it gives "no appreciable harm either by reducing the supply to established users or by causing environmental damage" and it is technically feasible, politically acceptable and economically viable38. So far alternative projects that have been presented are: From the Nile River in Egypt to Israel, from the Litani River in Lebanon to the Upper Jordan River Basin, from the Euphrates River in Iraq to Jordan, from the Qharun River in Iran to Qatar and from the Seyhan, the Ceyhan and the Manavgat Rivers in Turkey to Israel and the Arab countries39.  Turkey is generally seen as a water rich country, however the truth is a little bit different. The water potential of the country amounts to 196 billion CM/y, of which only 95 billion CM can be economically utilized. For the comparison this amount is less than the average annual flow of the Danube River, 206 billion CM/y. Water supply per capita in the country is 2,695 CM/y under the level of 10,000 CM/y that is the accepted minimum figure per capita of water rich countries40. Still, Turkey, as a Middle Eastern country, is on a good position relative to other countries in the region. This encourages Turkey to export a particular amount of water of the rivers entirely within her territory. Professor Hillel Shuval, from Hebrew University in Jerusalem, estimates that Turkey's water export represents only a reduction of 0.3 per cent of her excess resources41.

Turkey will have significant benefits from water import. She can transfer income gaining from water import to her Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP) which needs approximately $20 billion for the construction of the remaining parts to complete the whole project by the year 202042. In addition to this direct benefit Turkey may play an important role to end chronic water scarcity in the Middle East and so, in the peace process. Another motive for Turkey to sell water will be to decrease the pressure she faces due to the riparian countries' complaints if the water import eliminates "hydrophobia" in the region. Also Turkish construction companies will participate in this multibillion dollar projects.

Turkey's and Israel's hydropolitics show that water-related cooperation between them is possible, and more crucially, useful not only for their own benefits but also for the interests of other riparian countries. All alternative options to offset water deficit in the region may be subjects of this cooperation, including both supply-side and demand-side instruments from water trade, water technology transfer to joint agricultural production, water treatment.   Potential Joint Projects

In this part of the paper potential joint projects which provide a foundation for water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel, and a more comprehensive regional cooperation are presented.

The Manavgat Project: This project is based on the waters of the Manavgat River, at the Mediterranean coast of Anatolia, which has an average annual flow of 4.7 billion CM or the rate of 140 CM/sec43. The construction of the pumping station at the coast has been underway since 1990. The project is expected to be implemented within this year and waters of the Manavgat River can be transported directly from Turkey to Israel in huge floating polyurethane bags regardless of any riparian country's approval44.

TAHAL, Israel's water planning and research agency, conducted a pre- feasibility study and a report was prepared by Abraham Shemtov, an engineer, in June 1990. Shemtov estimated that in the first stage 250 MCM and in the second stage 400 MCM could be delivered into Israel's National Water System for $0.22 per CM, using extremely large bags with a capacity of 1.6 MCM45. According to James A. Cran, President of the Medusa Corporation of Calgary, the first 250 MCM could be conveyed to Ashkelon and pumped into Israel's National Water System at a cost of $0.17 per CM, while additional amounts would be at $0.09. He compares this cost with desalination at $0.75-1.25, supertanker transport at $0.70-1.10 and the Peace Pipeline to Jordan at $0.60. A cost of $0.65-70 is too high for agricultural use of water, but reasonable for municipal drinking water. For the sake of the comparison, "residents in the Boston area are currently charged $1.82 per cubic meter for their water"46.

Turkey is offering treated water from the Manavgat River at $0.08 per CM. Christopher Savage, a consultant engineer at the Aquarius Development Group of Britain, claims that with such a cheap supply of Turkish water and a total cost of between $0.60 and $0.70 per CM on delivery, water bags will prove to be cheaper and more flexible option than desalination47. These private companies may play a positive role in depoliticising water issue if Turkey and Israel decide to conduct water trade. Moreover, every drop of Manavgat water shipped to Israel would become a drop released from the Jordan River to Jordan and Palestine by Israel.

The Peace Pipeline: This project depends on the water import from Turkey by pumping waters of the Seyhan and the Ceyhan Rivers48 at amount of 6 MCM/day through two separate pipelines, the West Pipeline reaching Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the East Pipeline reaching Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman. The total cost of the project is estimated as $30 billion for a construction period of 8-10 years.

Though Israel is not included in the initial plan, after reaching a political consensus, the West Pipeline is likely to be extended to Israel and the West Bank. So Turkey and Israel would cooperate for the implementation of minimum 500 - maximum 2700 kilometers long West Pipeline that brings 3.5 MCM/day for supplying 400 liters per capita for approximately 8-9 million population with a cost at $0.8449.

According to the pre-feasibility report presented by Brown & Root Company of USA, the Peace Pipeline would supply fresh water much cheaper than desalinated water. After 1993 Declaration of Principles, signed between Israel and PLO, US companies Bechtel, Harza and Brown Bowary began their feasibility studies50. If this project is realized, each riparian country in the Jordan River Basin will assure a better quality and a certain quantity as a necessity for a regional peace settlement51.

The Mini-Pipeline Project: This is a smaller variant of the planned Peace Pipeline which would contribute to the Syrian, Jordanian and Palestinian, (not initially made available to Israel itself, but as well as) Israeli water budgets. While technically feasible the implementation of the project depends on political consensus, as the same for the Peace Pipeline, among the riparian countries. The estimated cost is $5 billion. A less costly alternative presented by Hillel Shuval is to extend the pipeline only to Syria.This enables Syria to release more water from the Yarmouk River for Jordanian and Palestinian use and allows Israel full use of the Banias River52.

Desalination: Turkey and Israel can coordinate a regional research and development effort which will help to acquire the needed technology for reducing the cost of desalination. In addition, the water scarcity in large Turkish cities, like Istanbul and Izmir, may be overcome by desalination plants to be built as a joint venture or a built-operate-transfer method. Training projects on the issue can be organized by Israel to share her wide experiences with Turkey.

Regional Water Bank: Another field of cooperation between Turkey and Israel is establishment of a regional water bank. This bank manages the additional water scarcity due to drought and surplus caused by floods in the region through a system of reservoirs, dams, hydroelectric plants and water connecting networks. The water quality and quantity would be monitored for taking necessary measures against pollution and extreme water shortages in the riparian countries. The water for bank would be obtained by import from Turkey. Regional water bank seems probable to provide a cheap source of electric energy thanks to appropriate gravity if water import from Turkey is implemented via pipelines53. The proposed integrated regional water management system would build confidence and lead to a regional economic and political stability and perhaps, to establishment of a "Middle East Economic Union" on the basis of water.

Pricing Water: The economic value of the commodity "water" should be reflected in water pricing for an efficient agricultural use of water especially in the countries where the policies of food self-sufficiency have been applied and water has extremely been subsidized. For achieving this aim Turkey and Israel may be pioneers for organizing a regional water market by the assistance and support of the World Bank, the United Nations Development Program, the European Community and other global inter-governmental institutions that contribute to a sustainable development in the region.

Water Data Bank: In the Middle East data about water resources are regarded as state secret by the governments of the region. This causes the existence of many manipulated and unreliable statistical figures according to the countries' water policies and national interests. Of course, this fact creates a belligerent atmosphere in which a cooperation cannot live. To avoid this situation a water data bank may be set up by contribution of all riparian countries taking into account their long-term benefits parallel to regional cooperation rather than their short-term interests which cannot be achieved without giving harm to a neighboring country. By obtaining true hydrological, geographical, economic, demographic, climatic and agricultural details; the "optimal, reasonable and equitable" allocation of water may be realized54. The data bank also enables to eliminate uncertainties that global warming causes. The water data bank is another field of water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel.

Joint Agricultural Production: Turkey and Israel may cooperate for joint agricultural production to use the land, water and resources in the most efficient fashion. Israel invests in GAP Region in Turkey for food grown with a relatively cheap water. By using intensive agricultural methods yield can easily be increased and various kinds of vegetable and fruit as well as agro-industrial products can be grown in this region. The rationally thinking governments of water-short countries of the Middle East import cheap food grown in the GAP Region instead of utilizing their scarce and costly water to grow their own food. By this way abundant agricultural use of water will be reduced and transferred to municipal use of water for preventing possible social unrest in cities resulting from water scarcity. The other advantage of importing food from the GAP Region is a lesser transportation cost because the region is adjacent to the water short countries.

Agro-Technology: Turkey can benefit from Israel's experience on agro- technology, such as plant breeding and drip irrigation in her GAP Project. Joint R&D efforts for new agro-technological innovations are likely to be conducted by the two countries' universities and private companies. It is estimated that micro-irrigation "can save about 30 to 50 per cent of water on the farm and together with better agronomic and culture practices, at the same time, double or triple yields per unit of water"55. A regional cooperation on agro-technology will be convenient for water-short Arab countries too and the regional financial organizations can support this cooperation financially.

Water Treatment: While waste water is not effectively treated in Turkey, Israel re-uses 60 per cent of her waste water and recent studies in Israel suggest that as much as 90 per cent of the country's irrigation may be based on recycled water by the year 202056. Israel, with her outstanding experience, can cooperate with Turkey for waste water treatment in Istanbul and Izmir where coastal pollution is important environmental degradation and share probable huge amount of recycled water for her own use in Israel.   Conclusion

Water may not be a strong source of conflict in the future of the Middle East since many countries in the region are now beginning to understand and recognize the seriousness of their water resource problems and to think of new ways to overcome them. A regional cooperation is becoming the most significant option for an integrated, positive sum and win-win approach after a long period of lack of trust and ill-feelings among the countries in the Middle East. Thanks to the ecological, hydrological and economic interdependence, seen so far as a negative factor for political independence by most Arab countries, cooperation is now a must for sustainable development and environmental conservation. Turkey and Israel have seen mutual benefits for a water-related cooperation, that may be a crucial step taken towards solving today's deadlock in the regional political atmosphere. The requirement and appropriate situation for such a cooperation between these two countries will lead to implementation of water-related projects soon. As the dominant powers in their river basins, Turkey and Israel can open the door of inter-basin cooperation to the riparian countries in the Euphrates/Tigris and the Jordan River Basins. This inter-basin cooperation for offsetting water deficits of today and future seems to be a precondition to the Middle East Peace.   

NOTES 

1. Ihsan Gurkan, "Turkish-Israeli Relations and the Middle East Peace Process", Turkish Review of Middle East Studies, No.7, Annual 1993, pp.109. 

2. Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Mousa characterized it as a "dangerous example". Deputy General Secretary of Arab League Muvaffak al-Allaf said: "This accord is an open threat for Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and other Arab States". Syria's daily Thisreen, known for its close ties to the authorities, also claimed this agreement was against Arab States. Turkish Daily News, April 8, 1996.

3. The copy of the full text of "the Memorandum Understanding and Guidelines on Cooperation Between the Government of the Republic of Turkey and the Government of the State of Israel" in English is available in Ihsan Gurkan, "Turkish-Israeli Relations and the Middle East Process", Appendix, pp.133.

4. Israel Foreign Ministry, "Turkish President Visits Israel", Information Division, via Internet, Jerusalem, 11 March 1996.

5. After occupying the West Bank and the Golan Heights in 1967 Arab-Israeli War and establishing a self-proclaimed "security zone" in Southern Lebanon in 1985 Israel was able to control the headwaters of the Jordan River System; the Banias, the Hasbani, the Yarmouk. So Israel is in a position of upstream riparian in the basin. Miriam R. Lowi, "Rivers of Conflict, Rivers of Peace", Journal of International Affairs, Vol.49, No.1, Summer 1995, pp.128. James W. Moore, "Parting the Waters: Calculating Israeli and Palestinian Entitlements to the West Bank Aquifers and the Jordan River Basin", Middle East Policy, Vol.III, No.2, 1994, pp.55. Frederic C. Hof, "The Yarmouk and the Jordan Rivers in the Israeli -Jordan Peace Treaty", Middle East Policy, Vol.III, No.4, April 1995,pp.47. 6. Syria, as a common riparian country of Turkey and Israel, uses the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey and the Party of God (Hezbollah) backed mainly by Iran against Israel as an illegitimate foreign policy instrument, terrorism. 7. George E. Gruen, "International Regional Cooperation: Preconditions and Limits", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.280. 8. Ibid. 9. Mine G. Saulnier, " 'Turkiye Buyuk Bir Guc' ", Milliyet, 8 Kasim 1993.

10. Anadolu Ajansi, A2021, 5 Kasim 1993. Today's Israel's Ambassador to Ankara, Zvi Elpeleg underscores high possibility for a water-related cooperation between Turkey and Israel too, saying that Turkey has excess water and huge arable lands, and Israel has outstanding agro-technology. Zaman,13 Mart 1996, Amerika baskisi.

11. Gruen, ibid., pp.281. Using decision support systems and analytical hierarchy process, Odeh Rashed Al-Jayyousi and Muhammed Rashid Shatanawi indicate that one of the main options for Jordan to improve its water resources management is water import. Odeh Rashed Al-Jayyousi and Muhammed Rashid Shatanawi, "An Analysis of Future Water Policies in Jordan Using Decision Support Systems", International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol.11, No.3, September 1996, pp.328.

12. However, Syria declared her acceptation of a pipeline bringing water from Turkey in the Economic Protocol (Article 10) signed with Turkey in 1987. Moreover, Macit Davud, a bureaucrat from Syrian Ministry of Water, said that they accepted Peace Pipeline Project unless Israel would not benefit from the project. Rafi Okuyan's reportage with Macit Davud in Damascus on September 5, 1992, Ayna, Sayi 1, Guz 1993, pp.17.

13. The population of the west side of the Jordan River is approximately 7.5 million today. This number will rise to 11 million by the year 2010 and 18 million by the year 2040. Avistay Braverman,"New Water from Old Sources", Middle East Insight, Vol.XI, No.1, Nov-Dec 1994, pp.34.

14. Ibid.

15. Israel Foreign Ministry, "Declaration on Principles for Cooperation on Water-Related Matters and New and Additional Water Resources", Information Division, via Internet, Jerusalem. For the process towards this water agreement see, Jon Martin Trolldalen, "Troubled Waters in the Middle East: The Process towards the First Regional Water Declaration between Jordan, Palestinian Authority, and Israel", Natural Resources Forum, Vol.21, No.2, May 1997.

16. Statistics about the annual flow of the Jordan River varies from author to author. For instance, Joyce R. Starr and Daniel C. Stoll show the figure as 1,287 MCM/y; Frederick Frey and Thomas Naff show it as total 1,850 MCM, of which 1,400 MCM/y is usable and Sharif El Musa indicates it as 1,500 MCM/y. Joyce R. Starr and Daniel C. Stoll, U.S. Foreign Policy on Water Resources in the Middle East, Washington DC: The Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1987, pp.5. Frederick W. Frey and Thomas Naff, "Water: An Emerging Issue in the Middle East?", Annals of the American Association of Political Science, No.482, Nov. 1985, pp.67. Sharif El Musa, "The Jordan-Israel Water Agreement; A Model or an Exception", Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol XXIV, No.3, Spring 1995, pp. 63.

17. Moore, ibid., pp.95.

18. Marzia Drezon-Tepler, "Contested Waters and the Prospects for Arab-Israeli Peace", Middle East Studies, Vol.30, No.2, April 1994, pp.284.

19. The Economist, "Water in the Middle East: As Thick as Blood", Dec. 23,1995-Jan. 5,1996, pp.59.

20. Helena Lindholm, "Water and the Arab-Israeli Conflict", in Leif Ohlsson, Hydropolitics: Conflicts over Water as a Development Constraint, London and New Jersey: Zed Books, 1995, pp.58.

21. Starr and Stoll, ibid., pp.6. Starr says, later, Israel is utilizing her resources at 15-20 per cent beyond their replenishment rate. Joyce R. Starr, "Water Wars", Foreign Policy, 82, Spring 1991.

22. Lindholm, ibid., pp.58. At that time water deficits in Jordan and the West Bank are estimated respectively, 178 MCM/y and 135 MCM/y. These amounts may also be estimated differently, for example, for Israel 1,300 MCM/y and for Jordan 1,800 MCM/y by the year 2020. Safa Giray, "Su Sorununda Turkiye'nin Siyasal Boyutlari", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.253.

23. Moore, ibid., pp.94 and 97.

24. Ibid.

25. J.A. Allan, "Water in the Arab Middle East: Availability and Management Options", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.179.

26. Harold Dichter, "The Legal Status of Israel's Water Policies in the Occupied Territories", Harvard International Law Journal, Vol.35, No.2, Spring 1994, pp.569. Israel diminished her agricultural use of water by 37 per cent in 1990 in comparison with a previous year, and 50 per cent in 1991.

27. Yoram Avnimelech, "Water Scarcity- Israel's Experience and Approach", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.50.

28. Ze'ev Schiff, Peace with Security: Israel's Minimal Security Requirements in Negotiations with Syria, The Washington Institute Policy Papers, No.34, Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1993, pp.xii-xiii. Frederic C. Hof writes taking an Israeli newspaper as a base that Israel's former Prime Minister Izak Rabin's main concern about the peace negotiations with Syria was Golan's fresh water resources. Frederic C. Hof, "The Water Dimension of Golan Heights Negotiations", Middle East Policy, Vol.5, No.2, May 1997.

29. Douglas Jehl, "A Hard Line in Mideast Gets Harder", The New York Times, April 5, 1996. Syria, as a common riparian of Israel and Turkey, have problems with two countries. She does not recognize Turkey's sovereignty over the district of Hatay, including the coastal cities Antakya (Antioch) and Iskenderun (Alexandretta) where the Orontes River runs through and meets the Mediterranean Sea. Daniel Hillel, Rivers of Eden- The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, New York: Oxford University Press, 1994, pp.189.

30. For more details about water quantity in Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza Strip see, Raja Gedeon, "Water Sector of Jordan in Perspective"; Hillel Shuval, "Proposals for Cooperation in the Management of the Transboundary Water Resources Shared by Israel and Her Neighbors"; Elias Salameh, "Analysis of the Middle Water: Problems and Options for Their Solutions"; Manuel Schiffler, "Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Jordan- Ecological and Economic Aspects in a Long-Term Perspective" and Riyad Hassan El-Khoudary, "Water Crisis in the Gaza Strip and Options of Their Solutions", all in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994 and Elias Salameh and Helen Bannayan,Water Resources of Jordan: Present Status and Future Potential, Amman: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung,1993.

31. For a detailed argument on water related matters of the Israeli-Jordan Peace Treaty (the provisions of Annex II) see, Frederic C. Hof, "The Yarmouk and Jordan Rivers in the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty in the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty", Middle East Policy, Vol.3, No.4, April 1995. Sharif S. Elmusa,"The Jordan-Israel Water Agreement: A model or an Exception", Journal of Palestine Studies,Vol.XXIV, No.3, Spring 1995.

32. Peter Beaumont, et.al, The Middle East: A Geographical Study, New York: Halsted Press, Second Edition, 1988, pp.108.

33. Ewan W. Anderson, "Water: The Next Strategic Resource", in Joyce R. Starr and Daniel C. Stoll, The Politics of Scarcity: Water in the Middle East, London: Westview Press, 1988, pp.5.

34. Gwyn Rowley, "Multinational and National Competition for Water in the Middle East: Towards the Deepening Crisis", Journal of Environmental Management,Vol.39, No.3, 1993, pp.192.

35. Braverman, ibid., pp.36. Moore, ibid., pp.107.

36. Allan, ibid., pp.171.

37. Water import 'in food' was used so widely that Professor J.A. Allan, London's School of Oriental and African Studies, estimates that 50 billion CM of water was imported into the region in the early 1990s by this way, "equivalent to the annual flow of the Nile in Egypt and to about 30 per cent of the region's total annually available surface water". Allan, ibid., pp.159.

38. Gruen, ibid., s.282.

39. Water import from Turkey will only be within the scope of this paper.

40. Konuralp Pamukcu, Firat/Dicle Nehir Havzasindaki Su Sorunu ve Cozum Arayislari, Yuksek Lisans Tezi, Istanbul Universitesi, Agustos 1994, pp.13-14.

41.Hillel Shuval, "Institutional Aspects of the Management of Water Quantity and Quality on the Shared Transboundary Water Resources of the Jordan River Basin", in The Proceedings of the International Symposium on Water Resources in the Middle East: Policy and Institutional Aspects, Urbana, Ill.: IWRA, October 24-27, 1993, pp.6.

42. If the proposed Peace Pipeline is implemented, Turkey can earn $2,190 million a year (6,000,000CM/day x $1 per CM (average)x 365 days). President Demirel said that Turkey would gain annually $150 million only from import of the Manavgat waters. Zaman, 13 Mart 1996, Amerika Baskisi. Using comparative welfare analysis, Nir Becker, Naomi Zeitani and Mordechai Shechter point out that Turkey can gain $46 million through selling 2200 million cubic meter water. Nir Becker , et al, "Reallocating Water Resources in the Middle East through Market Mechanism", International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol.12, No.1, March 1996, pp.29.

43. George Gruen, "Turkey's Potential Contribution to Arab-Israeli Peace", Turkish Reviews of Middle East Studies, No.7, Annual 1993, pp.207.

44. The Manavgat Pumping Station will supply specially treated water at amount of 250,000 CM/day and untreated water at amount of 500,000 CM/day. For more details see, Neset Akmandor, Huseyin Pazarci and Hasan Koni, Ortadogu Ulkelerinde Su Sorunu, TESAV Yayinlari, 1994, pp.35-37.

45. Pamukcu, ibid., pp.52. So far the Medusa Corporation of Canada, the Unitor Company of Norway and the Aquarius Development Group of Britain have been interested water transportation with huge bags and containers. They have tried to develop the capacity of the bags to reduce the cost of the water transport. For example, the Medusa Corporation may be able to hold water as much as 3.5 MCM. Brian Scudder, "A Water Bag Revolution", The Middle East, No.234, May 1994, pp.13.

46. Gruen, ibid., pp.210.

47. Scudder, ibid., pp.13.

48. The average annual flows of the Seyhan and the Ceyhan Rivers are respectively, 3.959 and 2.777 billion CM and the Peace Pipeline 's need is 1.225 billion CM from the Seyhan and 875 million CM from the Ceyhan. Akmandor, et.al, ibid., Ek-1.

49. Ibid.,pp.34. Cem Duna, "Turkey's Peace Pipeline", in Joyce R. Starr and Daniel C. Stoll, The Politics of Scarcity: Water in the Middle East, London: Westview Press, 1988, pp.119.

50. Hurriyet, 2 Ekim 1993.

51. For more details see, Boaz Wachtel, "The 'Peace Canal' Plan: A New Model for the Distribution and Management of Water Resources and a Catalyst for Cooperation in the Middle East", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.394-395.

52. John F. Kolars and William A. Mitchell, The Euphrates River and The Southeast Anatolia Development Project, Carbondole, IL: Southern Illinois University Press, 1991, pp.90 and 324. Hillel I. Shuval, "Approaches to Resolving the Water Conflicts Between Israel and Her Neighbors- A Regional Water-for-Peace Plan", Water International, Vol.17, No.3, September 1992, pp.133-143.

53. Marwan Haddad, "An Approach for Regional Management of Water Shortages in the Middle East", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul: Ayna, June 1994, pp.72-73. For instance, the level differential between Turkey's southeast region (800-900 meters above sea level), Golan Heights (375-450 meters above sea level) and the Jordan Valley (150-200 meters below sea level next to the Golan) provides hydrostatic gravity pressure that could be converted into hydroelectricity. Of course, such a project requires Syria's approval. B. Wachtel, "The Peace Canal Plan: A New Model for the Distribution and Management of Water Resources and a Catalyst for Cooperation in the Middle East", in The Proceedings of the International Symposium on Water Resources in the Middle East: Policy and Institutional Aspects, Urbana, Ill.: IWRA, October 24-27, 1993, pp.140. However, two American Jewish businessmen, Ron Lauder and Dan Abrams, have been mediating between Israel and Syria to start negotiations. The interesting point is that these businessmen have an Israeli company which is planning to build a water pipeline from Turkey to Israel via Syria. CNN Interactive, 7 July 1997.

54. The World Bank has rich experience regarding water data collection. Also "the Commission of the European Union has therefore presented to the Multilateral Working Group on Water Resources a proposal for a three-phase effort towards the establishment and implementation of sound and reliable data banks". Helmut van Edig, "Strengthening the Regional Cooperation- The German View", in Ali Ihsan Bagis, Water as an Element of Cooperation and Development in the Middle East, Istanbul:Ayna, June 1994, pp.438

55. Edig, ibid.,pp.430. A 10 per cent increase in the efficiency of irrigation would provide 50 per cent more water for municipal and industrial use. Scientists and researchers from Turkish and Israeli universities have already studied on agro-technology. "Researchers at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, the Hebrew University, and a Turkish researcher from Izmir have succeeded in producing a successful first crop of seedless, purple-red grapes whose wine, to the layman at least, tastes just like cabernet sauvignon" by using salty water. Jerusalem Post, February 25, 1997.

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